SZDSZ elections solved nothing

Gábor Fodor received 346 votes and János Kóka 344. A year ago Kóka won by seven votes. It's true that there were some suspicious ballots then but, given this new close contest, one can safely say that SZDSZ remains a deeply divided party. A few weeks ago most people predicted a much more lopsided result in Fodor's favor, but it seems that there was enough hesitancy about Fodor's ability as party leader that close to half of the delegates decided to stick with the known quantity. Running the day-to-day business of the party is a twelve-person committee. The composition of this group didn't change substantially: there are some Kóka supporters (including Kóka himself) and some Fodor supporters.

So the election didn't bring any seismic shift in the balance of forces within the party. Nothing was solved as far as the internal divisions are concerned. The importance of the elections, according to some observers, is how the new party chief will handle the relationship between SZDSZ and MSZP. Western news agencies are convinced that because of Fodor's election, the relationship between the two parties will improve. According to Reuters, Fodor's elevation to the post of president of the party will open the door to negotiations concerning the support of the minority government. The French AFP even talks about the possibility of a renewed coalition with "personnel changes" within MSZP. Although Fodor talked about such an eventuality a couple of weeks ago, since then he has contradicted these earlier statements on many occasions. In my opinion, there is no possibility of a renewed coalition because not even MSZP would like to see this happen. The demand for Ferenc Gyurcsány to resign is preposterous blackmail that would be rejected out of hand by MSZP. I guess Fodor came to his senses and dropped the idea. The American AP also thinks that Fodor's election will mean either a renewed coalition or support of the minority government from the outside.

The above analyses, on the surface at least, seem plausible.  Kóka swore up and down that his party would never cooperate with MSZP. He vowed that they wouldn't vote for the budget. He announced that he was not afraid of early elections. In brief, he said all sorts of things that showed his brashness and political inexperience. Fodor presumably stood for something different. But although he talked a lot, it was impossible to figure out exactly what he was planning to do if elected. He also changed his mind every second day. First he wanted to remain within the coalition, but a few weeks later he voted for a break. Then he talked about renewing the coalition on the condition that the socialists would kick out their best hope, the prime minister. Then I guess he realized that this was a hopeless proposition and moved on to argue that a new coalition was impossible. He even hinted at cooperation with Orbán, his old roommate and friend, until it seems he realized that this might not be such a swift idea. The upshot: no one knows what the new SZDSZ party chief's plans are.

In the last few days there have been other scenarios outlined on the basis of a word here and there uttered by some important SZDSZ politicians. The most intriguing sentence came from Gábor Horn, a Kóka supporter, who unequivocally told the reporter of Napkelte last Thursday that there will be no early elections. The next national elections will take place in 2010. That, of course, can happen only if at least some SZDSZ members of parliament support the minority government of MSZP. This was a surprising statement considering that his friend and boss, János Kóka, was so outspoken in his criticism of MSZP and didn't even seem to mind early elections. Perhaps there was a change of heart in the circle around Kóka. The fate of the government is really in the hands of the SZDSZ parliamentary delegation where Kóka supporters are in the majority. Thus, if one can take Horn's words at face value, it is possible that Kóka's supporters will make sure that the minority government can function properly. After all, only a few votes, four or five, are necessary to have a simple majority.

Another possibility is that the two factions can't bury the hatchet and that the parliamentary delegation will split. This would not be the first time that such a thing happens. The most recent split occurred in MDF when about half of the delegation bolted, sat for half a year with the independents, and then joined the Fidesz delegation.

In any case, while foreign observers consider Fodor's election good for the survival of the minority government, Fidesz's spokesman, Péter Szijjártó, invited Fodor to "reach an agreement" on early elections. I don't think that Orbán really believes that Fodor will fall for this gesture of friendship. If he did, the above outlined split in the party and the delegation would undoubtedly take place. And that would be the end of SZDSZ. Fodor, the former Fidesz deputy, could return to his old party. But all that is highly unlikely.

Comments

[New World Order]

There will be no early election because it means JOB losses to SZDSZ and MSZP MPs. It also means a loss of profit making opportunities (see for example to whom wind farm licenses have been granted over the last 4 years).

Having said that, unlike you, I believe the impetus to change the PM is growing stronger on a daily basis. The MSZP is not full of long term thinkers who have any understanding of the Hungary's current and long term problems. They, like most politicians, want easy solutions. The PM is a hard solution to say the least.

My guess is that the PM will "resign" sometime in the fall, and a goodsocialist will replace him. The MSZP strategy will become more populist (see, Veres is already talking about changing the inflation objective-a horrible idea). SZDSZ will "object" to the change in strategy, but enough of their supporters will find an excuse to vote with the Government to keep the government slouching along to both political and economic abyss.

I spend a lot of my professional time in other CEE countries. It is shocking to see how issues that are intractable in Hungary, are being addressed (albeit slowly) in other countries, and while Hungary looks inwards others look outwards. Talk to serious foreign investors looking at the region, and almost every country is being considered for serious foreign investment (save Hungary). Poland, by all statisitcs, is poorer than Hungary on GDP/capita, but go to any 2nd tier Polish city and you will see city much more dynamic than any Hungarian city other than Budapest. Hungary is becoming more irrelevant by the day and turning this around is a task that I don't believe any of the exisiting political parties is capable of effecting.

[Eva S. Balogh]

NWO: "My guess is that the PM will "resign" sometime in the fall, and a goodsocialist will replace him."

Obviously, our "guesses" are diametrically opposed to each other. I actually think that Gyurcsány's position within the party is stronger now than any time before.

"SZDSZ will "object" to the change in strategy, but enough of their supporters will find an excuse to vote with the Government to keep the government slouching along to both political and economic abyss."

Well, again, we will see what SZDSZ will do. As opposed to you, I don't think that most SZDSZ politician's chief concern is jobs. Much more so the fate of the party and their own political careers. Early elections are not to their advantage. But, as I said, I can imagine even a split within the party. Last night I took a look at ATV's Híradó and when Kóka spoke the Fodor supporters sat there absolutely stonefaced, and they didn't clap When Fodor gave his speech, the same thing happened on the other side. I don't see how these two goups will get together.

As for the government "slouching along," it seems that more legislations were passed last month than in the three months previously. I am not as pessimistic as you are.

[Te Jó Ég!]

"more legislations were passed last month than in the three months previously"

Szóval, egy hónap bürokratikus aktatologatás folyik a kormány által.

[Eva S. Balogh]

TeJoEg: "'more legislations were passed last month than in the three months previously' Szóval, egy hónap bürokratikus aktatologatás folyik a kormány által."

First, I have to ask you to use English. This is an English-language blog. Second, the legislations must be brought to the House and voted on. This is not simply a bureaucratic matter.

[NWO]

BTW, when I said "jobs" what I meant was their own political careers. We agree on this. With their political positions comes often (not always) financial benefit. This applies as much to FIDESZ as to SZDSZ and MSZP.

I would be happy for Gyurcsany to last out his term if he used the time to undertake further really bold reform. I just do not see this possibility as likely given the lfetish, populist leanings of the party. I fear he rather go along with this flow and stay in power than do something really useful. Hope I'm wrong.

[Eva S. Balogh]

NWO: "I would be happy for Gyurcsany to last out his term if he used the time to undertake further really bold reform. I just do not see this possibility as likely given the lfetish, populist leanings of the party. I fear he rather go along with this flow and stay in power than do something really useful. Hope I'm wrong."

Well, in this case we agree, but I'm not so worried about his colleagues in the party but rather about Fidesz. Orbán may say all sorts of things to university students and businessmen, but the spokesmen of his party keep going on with the same old populist message. And the people very much like to hear that message.