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« "Proof" of the activities of the Arrows of Hungarians | Main | Stem cell "therapy" business in Hungary »

July 29, 2009

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Mark

"Zsuzsa Ferge said that the MDF politician's ideas exhibited inadequate knowledge of European practice and the philosophy behind it."

This is a very good point. Most Western European states (the exceptions are states in southern Europe like Spain, Portugal and Greece, which for political reasons were left out of the post-war expansion of welfare) have a child support system of which non-income related cash payments form a sigificant plank. Clearly Hungary would move very far away from European norms of child support if it went down this road.

What is more is that Hungary does suffer from a severe demographic crisis, which is going to affect its ability to support its elderly and indeed to produce economic growth in the long-term, and concerted state action to offset some of the costs of raising children is going to be necessary to reverse this. More investment in families is a constructive suggestion - it isn't just Ferge that says this, but all the international evidence points this way. In 2001 the UK's Department for Work and Pensions commissioned a comparative 22 country survey of child support packages (http://php.york.ac.uk/inst/spru/pubs/1204/). Its core conclusion: "Those countries that make most effort to transfer resources horizontally have the more generous child benefit packages. They are also the countries with lower relative child poverty rates and most of
them have higher levels of fertility. Policy matters." (p.205) In Hungary's situation removing or reducing redistributive child support is likely to be a false economy.

"Pusztai and MDF find the Monok government's idea supportable."

What I find most interesting is some of the characters with whom Pusztai is associating herself. Szepessy is one of a group of seven mayors who have formed a group to develop what might be euphemistically described as innovative social policies (http://www.nepszava.hu/default.asp?cCenter=OnlineCikk.asp&ArticleID=1143227). Two of the other six are the mayors of Kerepes and Kiskunlacháza, which really should tell you all you really need to know about their innovative social policies, and their ideological inspiration.

But as we know from some of the characters they choose to sit with in the European Parliament (http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/jul/19/rabbi-tories-polish-mep and http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6554672.ece ), the MDF are not averse to associating with the extreme right when it suits them.

Eva S. Balogh

Mark: "But as we know from some of the characters they choose to sit with in the European Parliament (http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/jul/19/rabbi-tories-polish-mep and http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6554672.ece ), the MDF are not averse to associating with the extreme right when it suits them."

I don't think this would be true of MDF. I suspect Bokros wanted to be in the finance committee and he wouldn't have been able to if MDF remains with the Christian Democrats.

whoever

Eva, you're taking a granular approach to the thicket of social problems which beset Hungary. I think the suggestion of reducing the holidays and extending the school day is a good one. Linking it to cuts elsewhere is disingenuous.

With the current absolute weakness of Hungary's situation - and I'm not sure you appreciate just how weak this is - the cuts to child benefits would create a host of other problems to the many who are struggling with EU-size utility bills on Second World salaries.

You can see and smell the poverty in Hungarian towns now. It's a rising tide. After 8 years of "socialist" government there is no hope that a super solution exists. Gyurcsany's concept of personal responsibility never extended to his own social responsibilities to those less fortunate than himself. He lacked the empathy to approach social issues from the correct perspective. But why would he have empathy? He's a biology teacher by training.

The investment needed is too great and the material and psychological resources are too minimal. Hungary is locked in a sharpening spiral of decline; not just as a result of the MSZP, but because its people fail to acknowledge their own limitations, and have largely bought into a savage and unrealistic concept of "rogue" capitalism and quack solutions.

Fiddle about and make more families on the edge of poverty poorer, if that satisfies. But linking educational improvement to cuts in real income is not the way to improve childrens lives, and I'm sure most in the EU would acknowledge that.

What this debate illustrates is a lack of fundamental seriousness. Debates about how to reduce child poverty and improve the education system are vital. But this idea, of detaching the two, is bananas, as is the idea mooted by Bokros of parents clubbing together to build their own nursery from scratch.

Hungary does have the money to support a decent, free education system. What it doesn't have is people equipped with the resources and know-how to support themselves if government should withdraw from the money splashed on family and community support. We may wish it were different.

It's like the number of disability benefits: it's a very high number. People think that many are claiming disability falsely. But I'm not so sure. There are many damaged people in Hungary. People who couldn't hold down a normal job, because of psychological issues.

We need to separate wishful thinking from those who believe in neo-liberalism, from Hungary's reality. Sure, after consistently investing in the next generation, "up-by-the-bootstraps" solutions may be more appropriate. But now, they simply create a tidal wave of misery.

The cat's in the tree wailing - leave it to come down on it's own if you like. But when you come back in the morning and find a corpse on the ground...

Mark

Éva: "I don't think this would be true of MDF. I suspect Bokros wanted to be in the finance committee and he wouldn't have been able to if MDF remains with the Christian Democrats."

This doesn't contradict anything I've said. From any standpoint of political principle or even democratic representation, Bokros's membership of a group which consists of Eurosceptic conservatives and some fairly unpleasant far right elements is a bit strange (don't you think he'd be better off with the Liberals and Democrats? Given that they've just lost their Hungarian members, and that they also contain some conservative parties like Ireland's Fianna Fail, I'm sure they'd have had the MDF). If Timothy Garton Ash can criticise the UK's Conservatives for their role in this group given some of the unpleasant characters within it (http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/jul/29/david-cameron-european-parliament-conservatives) I'm sure that Bokros and the MDF can be asked similar questions.

My problem with the MDF for a long time (since before 2002) has been that under its current leadership it wants to run with the liberal fox, while hunting with the right-wing hounds. If they really are so opposed to the far right why is Pusztai so keen to agree with their ideas?

Eva S. Balogh

Mark: "Bokros's membership of a group which consists of Eurosceptic conservatives and some fairly unpleasant far right elements is a bit strange (don't you think he'd be better off with the Liberals and Democrats?"

Yes, I do, but you know as well as I do that MDF is terribly afraid to be associated with the left-liberals in any shape or form.

whoever

The MDF's right-wing grouping in the EP is quite appropriate. Bokros and the MDF are not liberals, even in the sense of Fianna Fail. They could probably be described as neo-conservatives, even if they lack the outright nationalism of US neo-conservatism. More accurately, the modern MDF is perhaps analogous with the sort of policies Keith Joseph advocated in late 70s Britain: only without the corporate backing showered on Mrs Thatcher's not-so-Conservatives. At least they're open about their ideology, unlike many on the "left."

Mark

Whoever: "They could probably be described as neo-conservatives."

This is more or less what I was getting at. One does have to distinguish between Bokros himself and the MDF. I do think Bokros would be best placed with economically liberal parties like the German FDP or the Dutch VVD.

As for the MDF I suspect there is actually little difference between them on social and cultural issues between them and the rest of the right. The difference is their committment to a limited state, and low taxes - a sort of right-populism for the rich, that isn't that dismilar to what was offered in the UK by Margaret Thatcher 20 years ago, or by the US Republicans now. In that context their closeness to the far right on "welfare" isn't too surprising. They just need to be a little more honest about where they really stand.

whoever

But in a strange way the MDF have been one of the more consistent political parties since crashing in 1994. To compare them to the British Tories is not the full story.

On a local level they cling to an "honest burgher" style of middle-class politics that bears some relation to the Austrian OVP; I can well believe the national leadership accounts of surveillance and undercounting in opinion polls.

I think they are normally quite honest about where they stand.

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