Charles Gati: The loneliness of the Hungarian government

Professor Charles Gati is on the faculty of the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) attached to Johns Hopkins University. The article originally appeared in the Hungarian daily Népszabadság on April 19, 2011. I'm grateful for his permission to re-publish it in English. The translation is Professor Gati's own.

* * *

Why isn’t America paying attention to us? my correspondents ask from Budapest.  My short answer is that it is, but first it is worthwhile to recall how the United States treated Vladimir Meciar’s Slovakia in the 1990s. I recalled this episode during a recent visit to Bratislava where I received a book from the excellent Pavol Demes who was foreign minister in 1990-91 when Slovakia was free but not yet independent. The book, written by Demes and entitled Friend, Partner, Ally, devotes two-three pages to the problems Slovakia experienced in her relations with the U.S. while Vladimir Meciar was prime minister in the mid-1990s--a time when NATO’s enlargement was on the agenda.

I also recall the Washington debates about Slovakia. Instead of democracy, Meciar had introduced a semi-authoritarian system--he also initiated anti-Hungarian measures--and Slovakia was the only one of the four Visegrad countries left out of the first round of NATO enlargement. Washington kept sending messages, diplomats kept coming and going. Demes notes that Meciar was very anxious to visit Washington, but it was Slovakia’s pro-Western president, Michal Kovač, who received the invitation. First Lady Hillary Clinton did visit Bratislava in the summer of 1996, but while there she openly criticized the Slovak government.

Meciar didn’t take the signals seriously; he was not even bothered by the growing disinterest of Western investors who took their money to some of the neighboring countries instead of Slovakia. The great majority of Slovak voters did come to understand, however, that democracy mattered, that Europe mattered, that America mattered, and that NATO mattered too, and they threw Meciar out of power. In the fall of 1998, 84 percent of those entitled to vote did vote, electing a coalition government headed by the pro-Western reformer, Mikuláš Dzurinda (today the country’s foreign minister). While Meciar received no invitation to visit Washington for eight long years, in 1999--in one year--Dzurinda received three invitations!

Washington’s influence in the region is not what it used to be in the 1990s; the dominant Western institution in Europe now is not NATO, but the European Union.  Despite that, America’s economic and political interests remain very significant.  America continues to be the only power with a global reach.  To cite the poignant words of Madeleine Albright, it is still the indispensable nation.  Should, God forbid, Moscow threaten neighboring Ukraine one day, or [ethnic] Hungarians be beaten up in Subotica [Serbia], America’s understanding and readiness to help could come handy.

Unfortunately, Viktor Orbán believes that the West is in decline and what he calls a new “Eastern wind” is blowing.  Three years ago, when he was in opposition, both he and I criticized Ferenc Gyurcsány for his attempts to befriend Russia, but last year [as prime minister] Orbán also wanted to come to terms with Putin.  His trip did not work out; he was sent home empty-handed.  “No MOL, no Malév, Paks is not enough.  Do svidaniya.” China’s leaders are promising him a few crumbs, while treating him like they used to treat Enver Hoxha’s Albania.  The Prime Minister tolerates that because he is apparently disappointed in the West.  He bears a grudge because Western governments have recognized his Socialist and liberal opponents in the past twenty years.  If this is the case, we’re witnessing the irony of ironies:  Orbán seems to assume that he may now court the Beijing regime that is still a functioning Communist one-party system, but he expects the West not to cooperate with those pro-pluralism and pro-free market Hungarian governments that included pre-1989 Communist party members.  This hypocrisy is made worse by the fact that three of the eight members of the current Orbán cabinet were once also Communist party members.

If Géza Hofi [a well-known standup comedian in the 1970s and '80s] were still alive, how well he’d explain these things on the stage! Indeed, the topic belongs to the program of a political cabaret as the issue of the “Communist past” has no serious meaning; it has lost its timeliness. I say this as an old-time anti-Soviet cold warrior: Communism is dead; it is nothing but a political phantom today.  That it could make a return appearance in the heart of Europe is out of the question.  Nobody in Hungary supports the one-party Communist system any more, and no present-day Socialist would wish to bring back economic planning.  True, there are “ex-Communists” around, and some of them should have been prosecuted and severely punished twenty years ago (Béla Biszku and others) but the leaders of Fidesz were unwilling then to do that, similarly to practically the whole Hungarian political elite. To this day we can’t tell precisely who did what during decades of Communist rule because [former prime minister] Ferenc Gyurcsány’s initiative to open up the secret police archives did not receive political support from either Fidesz or from almost any other part of the political elite. They know why; I don’t. Therefore, the real enemies of Hungarian democracy are not the ones who have been printing my pro-American articles and my anti-Russian diatribes word by word for fifteen years in this ex-Communist paper [Népszabadság], but those extreme nationalists who despise minorities, are in conflict with most of the neighboring countries, and, if Hungary was not receiving so much money from Brussels, would leave the EU.

Perhaps that is why the Hungarian government is not paying attention now to Western diplomatic signals -- even though both the unofficial and official signals are the same.  The opinion page of the Wall Street Journal is usually conservative; the Washington Post is middle-of-the-road, the New York Times is rather liberal.  And yet they view Hungary similarly.  On this issue there are no major differences between the two large American political parties either.  I am convinced that if Republicans who despise a “strong central government” [in the US] were in power, they would criticize the new Hungarian Constitution more sharply and denounce the media law more bluntly.  So to make a long story short: here in America only a few right-wing think-tanks, like the Heritage Foundation, and part of the Hungarian émigré community diverge from the all-but-unanimous criticism of Orbán [and his policies].  They, being terrified of the threat of Communism, do not notice that the threat no longer exists. 

So the Hungarian government is now standing virtually alone in the world.  Apart from the Italian Silvio Berlusconi, it has no foreign friends or supporters.  As a prime minister, Viktor Orbán’s first trip abroad was to Warsaw.  That was a wise and a good decision.  But since then everyone following Central Europe has noticed that the Polish government has come to be so disillusioned with Orbán that, with astute diplomacy, it arranged for the transfer of a large EU Summit planned for May from [the Hungarian city of] Gödöllő to Warsaw.  Orbán’s Polish friends (his former friends, to be precise) -- Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Foreign Minister Radoslav Sikorski -- in fact govern from the center and follow a strong pro-Western orientation.  Their history could provide them with good reasons to remind Berlin of its Nazi past, as Orbán does, but they do not.  The EU’s regulations are hard on the Poles as well, but they never say [as Orbán did] that “there is life outside the EU as well.” This is why the traditional and important Hungarian-Polish friendship flourished most under [former prime minister] Gordon Bajnai, Tusk’s like-minded colleague. It must also be noticed that at the end of May President Obama will not visit the site of the rotating EU Presidency, that is Budapest, but Warsaw, the capital of an often critical but loyal ally. 

That is how official America is sending messages -- sotto voce -- as well.  Let’s get this right: Washington is aware of everything significant happening in Hungary, but officials think before they act. Their goal is not to “lecture” anyone, and certainly not to humiliate anyone.  They look for useful messages; they seek to take useful steps. The Deputy Assistant Secretary responsible for Central Europe chose my university to stress in her remarks how important a part freedom of the press is to the U.S. Constitution.  But in reply to a question she also stated that she naturally does not intend to interfere in Hungary’s domestic affairs.  On another occasion she gave an interview to Népszabadság (that is not to a pro-government paper) stressing the role of checks and balances in Western democracies.  The U.S. Ambassador to Hungary also published an op-ed in Népszabadság, and as far as I know she regularly meets with the representatives of opposition parties and the activists of various social movements.

At the same time, the staff of the American Embassy, of the State Department, and of the Pentagon diligently works on fostering intimate relations between the two countries.  I suppose the Hungarian government is not happy about America’s good relations with the opposition, and the opposition is not happy about America’s good relations with the Hungarian government.  But whoever American officials face at the table, they all work to advance the triumph of democratic values.    

 

Comments

[kormos]

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/age-america-end-2016-china-blows-past-us-154221921.html%20?sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode

....and young investors are buying up successful
Chinese Companies.
The Shanghai Agreement works in the background.

[Paul]

Thank you, Professor Gati, an excellent piece.

Although I did smile slightly awkwardly at the last sentence!

[someone]

I am very sorry, but I must bring back some questions from 5-6 subjects before, as I really want to give a chance to Johnny Boy to answer some questions. Johnny Boy feels that many politicians on the "left" served the Kadar Regime, and they should deserve no break. Also Johnny Boy feels that we should break away anything and everything that is communist. Johnny Boy was on holiday so he did not have a chance to answer to those questions, so here we go with an other try:
1. What did You (johnny) or your parents do against the "terror" between 1956-1988. You are so proud that you did not serve that government, not like the others who did, so what did your family do?
2. What did Orban do prior to 1988 to not serve the regime?
2. What is your opinion about the cosy political talks between China and the Fidesz? Do you think the Fidesz is about to turn the Chinese into a real democracy?

[Mutt Damon]

I think the last sentence means the *Americans* will work to advance the triumph of democratic values no matter who is at the table.

[Jano]

Paul: Okay, so it was not just me about the last sentence:) I happened to read the post almost right after watching Armageddon (with Bruce Willis) on TV, and it suddenly just got too much:)

[Paul]

I was just thinking of all the very NON-democratic regimes the Americans have supported and promoted over the years. The balance of their actions must be very much AGAINST democracy overall.

The USA's actions are far more motivated by what they deem to be in their interests than the democratic credentials of the sides in the dispute.

[GDF]

Paul:"The USA's actions are far more motivated by what they deem to be in their interests than the democratic credentials of the sides in the dispute."

I think this was more true during the Cold War period than it is now.

[Jano]

GDF: Come on, Paul is right and why wouldn't they first protect their interest? They support Saudi-Arabia, most of the now toppled northern african dictators were their allies. Just look:

http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.eurasiareview.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Gaddafi-with-obama.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.eurasiareview.com/qaddafis-departure-is-not-easy-12032011/&usg=__hIy-UxvcGbbTHd_qqDzxXpdlwQM=&h=192&w=256&sz=10&hl=hu&start=0&zoom=1&tbnid=2GFmANGSETd_xM:&tbnh=119&tbnw=159&ei=x665TdyyOqHb0QGmv5nTDw&prev=/search%3Fq%3DGaddafi%2BUS%26um%3D1%26hl%3Dhu%26client%3Dfirefox-a%26sa%3DN%26rls%3Dorg.mozilla:hu:official%26biw%3D1024%26bih%3D380%26tbm%3Disch&um=1&itbs=1&iact=rc&dur=511&page=1&ndsp=10&ved=1t:429,r:6,s:0&tx=60&ty=49

(sorry for the long link).

[GDF]

To Jano: Those who know me would not imply that I am trying to defend any of the Obama administration's foreign policy decisions. However, I would take with a grain of salt any article form a media outlet tha defines itself this way: "Despite the combined Eurasia and Afro-Asia areas containing over 70% of the world’s population, news continues to be dominated by a U.S. slant, and that is where Eurasia Review - an independent news outlet – enters the picture by providing a different perspective on current events."

I also would like to add that I said "more true than it is now", not that it is completely excluded now. By the way, as an American I do expect the American government to act in the interest of the USA.

[Paul]

It's not just down to democratic v non-democratic, either.

Much of today's political instability and world-wide terror can be traced back pretty directly to Israel's behaviour - most of which would not have been possible without the uncritical and massive 'aid' they have received from the US over the last 65 years.

I look forward to the US attacking the Israeli air force, etc, in order to protect the Palestinians from the steady annexation of their land - something, I might add, declared illegal by the UN several times.

[Jano]

GDF: "By the way, as an American I do expect the American government to act in the interest of the USA."

Yes and that's nothing wrong with that, just leave the cheesy sentences and I'll be ok with that. (Of course, I know this was rethorics in Gati's article, but me and Paul just have the right to smile at it awkwardly) Despite all my negative feelings, I still think the US is the best of the now existing great powers (Russia or China, e.g) and I have a rather pragmatic approach to foreign policy, I'm just having a hard time taking the bullshit that's all.

[David]

"Much of today's political instability and world-wide terror can be traced back pretty directly to Israel's behaviour - most of which would not have been possible without the uncritical and massive 'aid' they have received from the US over the last 65 years."

Sounds like you'll be writing for Barikad next....

[Paul]

The old favourite, 'he's commented negatively on Israel, he must be 'anti-Semetic'' response, eh? I thought much better of you.

You will find no firecer critic of anti-Semitism than me. I have practically alienated myself from half my family over this. It is the single thing that most distresses me about Hungary.

But supporting the Jews (or even being a Jew in many cases) does not mean you support Israel or the awful way it behaves.

Once, when attacking terrorists, Thatcher said that we should "starve them of the oxygen of publicity". But the real way to deal with terrorism is to "starve them of the oxygen of injustice".

As long as Israel carries on as it does, that feeling of injustice towards the Islamic/Arab peoples (whether real or imagined) will continue to grow.

If the US really wanted to conduct a 'war on terror' their first step would be to get Israel to conform to the UN resolutions.

[Mutt Damon]

@Paul They will find another "injustice". The important is the enemy. The arabs made Palestine a propaganda tool to stock up with enemies for the long run. Anyway it's understandable why Israel, a country that was attacked by the Arabs numerous times, is a bit leery giving up anything.

[David]

"You will find no firecer critic of anti-Semitism than me. I have practically alienated myself from half my family over this. It is the single thing that most distresses me about Hungary."

While this is admirable, surely you must wonder why your views on the Jewish State are pretty similar to those who believe all sorts of lunatic Jewish conspiracy theories? Might this not suggest that your views are a bit unbalanced?

Attributing "much of today's political instability and world-wide terror" to Israel seems a massive exaggeration.

The Palestinians and their Arab sponsor countries have had chance after chance for peace, yet they continually choose war.

[Andy]

Israel and the arab countries are a "róka fogta csuka-csuka fogta róka" I guess they deserve each other.

[Polgreg]

poor pathetic prof from local US university:
Hungary has much longer history than you can imagine and and Hungarian nation do not need lecture like your one above. Frankly, your remarks are insolent!!! You spend a lot of time on studying and developing your anti-communism. Great. I can advice you: now you can start your study on US power decline which was started with famous G.W.Bush presidency and Monroe doctrine extended worldwide is not enough. People in Hungary, Uganda, New Zeland, Afganistan and even in Poland (yes, yes, the Poland where as people saying, agent Sikorski is foreign ministry) where I'm living can have better sort of democracy than US model. So on good bay: get lost prof from Hungary and focus on the local issues like what to do to reduce US debts, reduce unemployment rate and maybe some trivial social equility implement.