Will MSZP split? It looks like it

Yesterday I discovered a brief news item in Magyar Nemzet. It was about Ferenc Gyurcsány's alleged decision to establish a new party. The article was entitled "Left wing party bloc may be established." Magyar Nemzet claimed to have "learned that the current leadership of MSZP and the followers of the former prime minister are contemplating negotiations about 'a peaceful divorce' that would resolve the irreconcilable differences between them." Magyar Nemzet's informer expressed the opinion that the debate within the party must end by the spring of 2012 when the party will hold its general meeting in order to be ready for the 2014 elections.

It's easy to dismiss information coming from Magyar Nemzet because this newspaper is notoriously unreliable when it comes to scoops about the opposition. So at first I disregarded the news as being "one of those Magyar Nemzet stories" until this morning I learned that Csaba Molnár, Ferenc Gyurcsány's right-hand man and deputy in DK (Demokratikus Koalíció), sent a letter to Attila Mesterházy in which the Koalíció suggests that the socialist MP's who received their seats in parliament from the party list resign to provide an opportunity for new, more capable people to represent the party in public. Such a mass resignation would leave only two current MSZP parliamentarians, who won their districts outright. Of course, such a decision would also entail the resignations of Ferenc Gyurcsány and Csaba Molnár. The news about Molnár's letter is accurate, and Attila Mesterházy took it seriously: he is calling together an extraordinary meeting of MSZP's parliamentary delegation to discuss these new developments.

Mesterházy's reaction to the suggestion is naturally negative. He pointed out this morning in an interview with György Bolgár that Gyurcsány's fomenting dissension within the party doesn't serve the true interests of the democratic opposition. After all, it is MSZP that most likely will be able to gather the forces of the left-liberal opposition, and these debates that are conducted in public only weaken the party.

On the surface Mesterházy's argument has merit: it seems easy to criticize what Gyurcsány is doing. After all, he is the man who most ardently desires the fall of Viktor Orbán and his regime. Moreover, he is a talented and intelligent man. Therefore, why is he forcing the issue? For personal gain? I very much doubt it.

Here is my take on the issue. Gyurcsány and his followers came to the conclusion that a "renewal" of the party from within is a hopeless undertaking. Yet, with the current leadership it is impossible to remove Fidesz and Viktor Orbán. So the decision was made to come up with a demand so impossible that it would necessarily lead to a parting of the ways. I assume that Gyurcsány is counting on his popularity within the party. According to the latest vote taken only a couple of months ago it looks as if the pro-Gyurcsány forces are in the majority. If the party membership splits, the financial resources of the party must also be split. Thus, the new party (Demokrata Párt?) wouldn't have to start from scratch. There would be membership and even financial resources in addition to real estate holdings.

Why did Gyurcsány decide to act? I think because by now he is convinced that a Mesterházy-led MSZP simply cannot inspire the anti-Orbán forces. There is something to that. Here are the results of the Szonda-Ipsos (lately only Ipsos) public opinion poll that shows the changes between May 2010 and August 2011:

MSZP is languishing. It doesn't matter how Mesterházy tries to chalk it up to a devastating defeat from which recovery must be slow. There is no way of explaining the stagnation away.

Medián just came out with its latest poll, and its results are in line with those of Ipsos taken just before September 8. Fidesz's share is 31%, the smallest in the last six years. Viktor Orbán's popularity stands at 38%, a historic low. The last time Orbán was doing very poorly at the polls was in December 1999, in the middle of his first tenure as prime minister, but even then his popularity stood at 41%. And yes, very few people are satisfied with the current government: less than 30%. Almost 70% of the people think that the country is heading in the wrong direction.

All this should sound like music to the ears of the anti-Orbán forces, but the trouble is that MSZP is stuck at 12%. That is bad enough, but if we consider that Jobbik is doing just as well as MSZP then we must realize the gravity of the situation. It doesn't matter how often Mesterházy announces that in the near future their strategy and communication will change dramatically, words are not enough and a lot of people are convinced that the current MSZP leadership is simply not capable of more.

I would call Gyurcsány's latest move--if my analysis of the situation holds--a bold and risky one. But perhaps in grave situations drastic actions are needed. Given the current state of affairs perhaps it is a risk worth taking. Perhaps this way one could also measure the popularity or unpopularity of Ferenc Gyurcsány. Since at the moment there is no rising political star on the horizon, it might be worthwhile to find out for sure what he would be capable of doing. If he fails, he can put a permanent end to his political career and move on to something else. And the left can go in search of another dynamic politician.

Comments

[kincs]

This is madness.
The party is going down the well-trodden path of public infighting taken by the Christian Democrats, the Smallholders, the Free Democrats and the Democratic Forum. And look where they are now.
No, Mesterházy is not the person to unseat Orbán, but neither is any other MSZP politician right now. Least of all Gyurcsány.
Gyurcsány IS the most talented politician in the party, but he needs to realise that he is also the most unpopular.
He could do a lot of good by using his considerable rhetorical skills to make his points, while letting the party leaders, whoever they might be, get on with the day-to-day business of leading the opposition.
The party needs to bide its time and regain respectability. This is not the way to do it.

[Jano]

Kincs: I agree, but Eva's last paragraph is correct. Let's see!

[Paul]

Madness indeed!

Orbán has ensured that Gyurcsány is too toxic for any party led by him ever to do well. He may be able to persuade the Hungarian people that he is OK after all, given time, stranger things have happened, but he isn't going to manage that in 2 years.

And just how easy is it to split a party? Has this ever happened in modern Europe? Would the losers quietly accept the deal and divide offices, workers, money, etc neatly down the middle? Here you are Úr Gyurcsány, the man we've hated all these years and who is responsible for destroying our party, please take half our assets and set up your new party. Bon voyage!

As I said the other day, the left has a serious problem in Hungary - they can't get people to vote for them. A year and a half into a new government, in the teeth of a serious recession and the Euro crisis, and with the government very unpopular, the opposition should be riding high. But instead they are flatlining at 12 or 13%. Even a large part of their own core support isn't voting for them!

As kincs accurately points out, we have seen this before - with the Smallholders, the Liberals and MDF. There's a very good chance that MSzP will go the same way and not get any MPs at the next election, but splitting the party and picking Gy as the new leader will guarantee this happens.

The only viable opposition to OV is outside parliament. Hungarians need to take to the streets, they need to strike, they need to take part in mass civil disobedience protests, they need to cause as much inconvenience to Fidesz as they can, and they need to raise international awareness about what is going on in Hungary.

And they need to do it now.

[Paul]

And if this topic doesn't bring old JB back out of the woodwork, nothing will!

[Eva S. Balogh]

Kincs: "Least of all Gyurcsány. Gyurcsány IS the most talented politician in the party, but he needs to realise that he is also the most unpopular."

I think he ought to find out. Here is an opportunity.

[Some1]

I think what the MSZP or a new party needs is to show some alternative options to "rebuild" the country. Just saying that "we do not like what the Fidesz is doing" is not enough. THe reason why Jobbik is excelling because they put all their energy to come up with alternatives that are as popular as Fidesz' nonsense. It is not that what they say have any merit, but they act.
An other message to MSZP or any alternatives...For goodness sake, hire a marketing expert, and a decent spokes person!!!!

[Vándorló]

It is ridiculous that the bes that is being offered from the left is a tainted and failed ex-PM. One who ensured that support for Fidesz grew, despite Orbán being on his knees after his second defeat.

My reasons? Well I've already stated them many times. For example here on the 22nd February 2010:

"In an article from the 21st June 2007 the Economist notes that Gyurcsány had "little interest in restarting reforms" (article title "Eastern Europe's politicians"). And so it turned out to be, by the time he left two more years were wasted (at best).

His right-hand man in Finance Ministry was an ex-electrical engineer, Keller László, a person whom Péter Kende picked out as one of the three people that should be cleared out of politics. Yet as you note yourself Gyurcsány even entrusted this man Keller to investigate others wrong doing "as undersecretary was in charge of checking on the many very shady financial affairs of the Orbán government" (this blog, April 23, 2008). Talk about bare-faced cheek.

And I did ask you a direct question regarding this on the 11th Nov 2009 that you have yet to respond to: 'As you believe Péter Kende to be "...in my opinion the best investigative journalist in Hungary", so you also agree with his views about corruption in MSZP and in particular the role of Gyurcsány and László Keller? In an interview for Index he was asked which three people need to be cleaned from public life, he offer two József Torgyán, well we know his fate, and... '...László Keller. It's insupportable that a person who was the Public Finance Minister placed three members of his own family into positions close to the party or those owned by the state. It is criminal that Gyurcsány never created a great stink out of this.' ("...Keller László. Tűrhetetlen, hogy az az ember, aki közpénzügyi államtitkár volt, a családja három tagját állami tulajdonú és pártközeli helyekre helyezze el. Bűn, hogy Gyurcsány nem csinált nagy ügyet ebből.")'

The how about his wider perception in Europe from the Economist on March 5th 2009? "the Hungarian prime minister, Ferenc Gyurcsany, asked EU leaders to agree on a special €180 billion bail-out plan for the ex-communist bloc, and circulated a discussion paper that could be read as saying that if such money were not forthcoming, millions of unemployed easterners might flee west. Mr Gyurcsany's plan went down badly with Western leaders like Angela Merkel of Germany, but also caused great anger among leaders from countries like Poland and the Czech Republic. Hungary is a terrible spokesman for east and central Europe: its leaders spent like drunken sailors during long years of economic growth, and the public finances are now in dire shape as the crisis hits."

As he acknowledged in his resignation address and reported in the Economist on the 26th May 2009 "I hear that I am the obstacle to the co-operation required for changes, for a stable governing majority and the responsible behaviour of the opposition…I am eliminating this obstacle now..." (Economist article title "Hungary's Ferenc Gyurcsany steps down").

Hungary's path to recovery can be traced directly to the date he abdicated and not a moment sooner.

There are a whole gamut of reasons people despise Gyurcsány and have nothing to thank him for. Back on the 11th and 12th May 2008 you used a piece from 'Élet & Irodalom' to excuse the political, economic and social impotence of the Gyurcsány and Medgyessy government as expressed in a question put to Orbán by Magyar Nemzet: "The left got stuck somewhere. In my opinion their problem is that in the last seven years they have been terrified of you [Orbán]. Ever since 2002 basically all their actions have been motivated by the pathological fear of the return of Viktor Orbán. And over the years they got to the point that they sacrificed Hungary on the altar of their paranoia." (this blog, May 11th 2008).

Also, during Gyurcsány reign we had how many enquiries and commities did he pretend to set up to clean up government? And the results? The international parties all left saying that they were basically disgusted and were not prepared to continue wasting their time. And when he leaves what happens? The flood gates open and now we actually have things coming out into the light of day.

Tell us again, what was/is so good about Gyurcsány? What did he actually do for Hungary? Apart from blogging and charging the bill to the state, that is."

My prediction is this split will in the long term ensure the gradual demise of MSzP, in the same way the split in the SzDSz brought about its end.

This is not a bad thing. Hungary doesn't need these crooks. It needs a new left.

Bajnai and his kind are needed, not Gyurcsány's clowns.

[Eva S. Balogh]

Vandorlo: "Yet as you note yourself Gyurcsány even entrusted this man Keller to investigate others wrong doing "as undersecretary was in charge of checking on the many very shady financial affairs of the Orbán government"

I said nothing of the sort. It was Medgyessy who appointed him. So, he wasn't Gyurcsány's right-hand man. It helps to know the facts.

[Eva S. Balogh]

To Vandorlo, Your rambling tirade against Keller is most likely based on some Fidesz source. Keller did nothing wrong. He was cleared in the Kulcsár-affair. Károly Szász, head of PFÁSZ, wanted to sue him but eventually he had better sense and dropped the charges. Just lately he won against a number of papers that accused him of all sorts of wrongdoings.

I really don't know what your problem is, but you have a serious problem. You throw all sorts of unrelated things together and come up with some completely unsupported accusations which simply don't stand up.

[John T]

"As I said the other day, the left has a serious problem in Hungary - they can't get people to vote for them. A year and a half into a new government, in the teeth of a serious recession and the Euro crisis, and with the government very unpopular, the opposition should be riding high. But instead they are flatlining at 12 or 13%. Even a large part of their own core support isn't voting for them!"

Paul - I'd go further and say that as well as the Hungarian left, the Hungarian centre also has a serious problem. The reality is that only the right & far right have any influence - MSZP and LMP's performance is abysmal. And at a local level too, Fidesz has things sown up, with no real opposition. Anyone who tries to clean things up or take a different course gets squeezed - look at the way the independent mayor of Esztergom,Éva Tétényi hasn't been able to assert any kind of authority, despite being elected by people fed up with the behaviour of the Fidesz group there.

[Vándorló]

@ESBAlogh: "most likely based on some Fidesz source." I clearly detail three sources with quotes: yourself, Péter Kende and The Economist.

Which one are you suggesting is the Fidesz source?

NB. I also clearly point out that you assert that Péter Kende is highly credible, as you state he is: "...in my opinion the best investigative journalist in Hungary". So that only leave The Economist?

Wonderfully clear reasoning and again you side-step all the issues relating to Gyurcsány and your support for him beautifully.

[Eva S. Balogh]

Vandorlo: "yourself, Péter Kende and The Economist."

I'm glad that you consider me such a reliable source. Péter Kende managed to find some dirt on Viktor Orbán and he had some harsh words to say about Hungarian courts, but I wouldn't take every word of his as Bible truth. If he said something nasty about Keller--which, by the way, he didn't--he was wrong. Keller was found not guilty on all accounts. The people he tried to bring to justice naturally weren't enamored by him and tried to blacken his name. It didn't work. However, you swallowed every word of the accusations. Meaning, the few words that reached you.

As for The Economist. Where does it say that Keller, a crook, was Gyurcsány's right-hand man? Nowhere.

I think, you're worse than JB. A man who doesn't really know what he is talking about and who brings all sorts of nonrelated things together to create a nonexistent story.

[Johnny Boy]

"they need to raise international awareness about what is going on in Hungary."

What is going on in Hungary?
I live here, as opposed to the vast majority of you, yet I don't see anything about what "international awareness" is needed to be raised.

[Vándorló]

@ESBalogh: "Where does it say that Keller, a crook, was Gyurcsány's right-hand man?" You need to slow down and read my comment again. At no point to I make even the vaguest claim that The Economist makes any statement about Keller.

Rather, I clearly state their direct opinion of Gyurcsány's competence and that he: '...had "little interest in restarting reforms" (article title "Eastern Europe's politicians")'

And just to clarify further, I am making no claims about the competence, implied or otherwise of Fidesz. Here and elsewhere I have made myself perfectly clear on that matter.

To make a remark against Gyurcsány and MSzP is not a vote a support in any way for their opposition. To be perfectly honest, I don't consider them as antithetical to one another. In terms of the damage they do to Hungary, the way they conduct themselves, pilfer money and spread enniu they are exactly the same.

Is it so hard to grasp that you can be both anti-MSzP and anti-Fidesz?

This bipolar fixation is bordering on clinical.

[Johnny Boy]

Vándorló: "This bipolar fixation is bordering on clinical."

Simplistic people seek for simplistic responses to the questions of life. These blog dwellers are among the most simplistic ones who cannot imagine their wicked image of Hungarian reality any other way.

They simply cannot think outside this small bipolar kennel.

As I happen to swim upstream here and support Fidesz most of the time, the dwellers' only possible reaction to it is that I am paid/sent by Fidesz and what I'm writing here is "official Fidesz propaganda".

Because they, in their thinking wired to the extreme, cannot imagine any other connection between the opinion of a sole poster and Hungary's leading party.

Yet they are absorbed in their moaning that they don't understand why Fidesz is so widely supported in Hungary.
Their mental and emotional shortcomings blind them from the answer staring right into their confused faces.

[Paul]

John T - such are things in Hungary, that I actually get depressed when people agree with my gloomy views!

In my defence, my views are not lazy pessimism, I am naturally very much an optimist. My thoughts on Hungary are based purely on what I see and hear and on as neutral an analysis as I can manage.

And I'm afraid I really do see no hope at the moment. OV has things pretty much sewn up. He has total control and can (and does) alter procedures and laws at will, he has destroyed the opposition, and he is rapidly moving the country towards effective dictatorship.

And, most importantly of all, no one can stop him. He has called the bluff of both the EU and the US and proven what many of us suspected - that the EU has no teeth at all, and that Hungary just isn't important enough for the US to care.

And those who think his mistakes in government will be the undoing of him are in for disappointment. Even if he really does mess the economy up completely (which I fear he is very much capable of), in what way will that help? There is no 'higher authority' to appeal to, no one to stop him, no one to oppose him. Hungary may well end up broke, but it will end up broke with a Fidesz government still in place.

OV's only apparent mistake was to play with the fire of extremism by using Jobbik and extreme right sympathies to get Fidesz into power. In so doing he has opened Pandora's box and released forces he may not be able to control. As I've said before, the next election is likely to result in a Fidesz government, with a Jobbik 'opposition'.

Personally, I think that Jobbik isn't a real danger, the next election will be their high point. Once they become a power to be taken seriously, people will start to examine them more closely and they will not stand up to that examination. And, as these far-right parties always do, they will collapse amongst a fever of internal strife and splits.

But, even if they do succeed, what use is this to those of us on the progressive side of politics? The choice between Jobbik and Fidesz is no real choice at all. You may as well ask if you want to be shot or beheaded.

As I see it, there are only two ways to remove OV: either the opposition gets their act together now and uses the disenchantment with Fidesz to get them voted out at the next election, or there will have to be revolution to force OV out.

And I’m afraid the first option isn’t going to happen. The opposition is too fragmented, with no natural leader untainted by the past. And, even if the opposition do get their act together, by the time the next election comes round OV will have the electoral laws sewn up tight. It will difficult to stand as an opposition candidate and almost impossible to win as one.

So, hysterical as it might sound to call for a revolution, that really is the only way to get OV out. We need to develop a popular grassroots movement which will make life as difficult as possible for the Fidesz government – protests, strikes, civil disobedience, whatever it takes. OV has the political side sewn up, his only vulnerability is to a mass popular movement, standing up against him and making it impossible for him to govern the country.

He is vulnerable to this on two counts: First, his vanity – he has an insatiable desire not just for power, but for popularity, his self-image will not be able to cope with the reality of unpopularity. And secondly he doesn’t have the physical means of standing up against mass protest. The police force is small, underequipped and badly trained, and “the clowns” will not have the motivation to fight protestors they largely agree with. And the army is in much the same situation. Nor does he have the time or resources to upgrade either force to the level (and motivation) to face demonstrators.

But this revolution has to start now – before we get to the stage where it takes blood on the streets to oust OV. We need OV to go into the next election seriously rattled by the size and determination of the movement against him. He’ll still win that election, but he’ll know that his 20 Year Reich isn’t going to happen. Even while he counts his majority in Parliament, he will know in his heart he has lost.

So, this weekend could be critical to the future of Hungary. Will this be another damp squib, where the anti-OV ‘forces’ prove themselves ineffective and easily dealt with? Or will the protestors resist the police bans, will the police themselves protest instead of policing? Will OV see, not a pathetic whinge by the ineffective ‘opposition’, or will he witness the beginning of the end for his reign?

Hungarians need to stand up and be counted this weekend. If they don’t, they are virtually saying to OV, “OK, do your worse, we really don’t care”.

[Paul]

Welcome back, JB!

We need you on here, without you around, we end up fighting amongst ourselves!

Did you see my 'facts we know' post about the Gy court case? It's a few days back, now I'm afraid, but I'd welcome your reaction to it (seriously).

[chayenne]

The way I see it, MSZP in its present form is dead. Gyurcsány is politically ruined, personally demonised, he can't be a figurehead anymore, he divides the people instead of uniting them. Yet, I'd almost welcome a split within MSZP, if only for the sake of something finally happening. What Hungariann politics needs is a new infusion of blood. Where are the new faces, those young titans who want to make a career in politics? It's a political wasteland now. Gyurcsány should take a step back even if this split actually happens and let the new party attract all those people who have been disappointed in MSZP and who, with only MSZP as a leftist option, have been left without a party they could vote for. The most important thing now is to somehow lure that almost 45% back into politics, let them develope a stake in the fate of the country again and this requires new parties, new faces who are not tarnished by the past 20 years. Apathy and disillusionmen only favours Fidesz. If half the country withdraws from politics and won't even cast their ballots at the next elections, a ridiculously small number of votes will be enough to reelect OV and Co. and that would not only be an incredible waste of opportunity, but a travesty as well.

[Eva S. Balogh]

Vandorlo, I had enough. To grab a few quotations from here and there, to take a sentence out of context from The Economist and then to say that here is the proof for this or that is nonsense. I finished the discussion.

[Johnny Boy]

Paul: I'll look into it when I can take the time.

Eva: you lost this discussion miserably, there were no quotations taken out of context, and you can't even begin to argue with logical reasoning. You were and are chanceless from the start.

[Some1]

JOhnny Boy: "I live here, as opposed to the vast majority of you, yet I don't see anything about what "international awareness" is needed to be raised."
It's time for you to step out from your cubby hole. Do a little search on facebook on various HUngarian subjects and you can find hundreds of people who are reaching out. (Not you of course.) I am also aware at least 2 dozens of Hungarian people in HUngary who wish some sort of intervention from ore civilized countries.

"Eva you lost this discussion miserably, You were and are chanceless from the start."
I think not. (Poor Johnny Boy! Look who is talking. You ran away from the questions you could not or dared not to answer. You should be the last one to tell people who is right and who is wrong!)

[Kirsten]

Vandorlo: "Is it so hard to grasp that you can be both anti-MSzP and anti-Fidesz?"

This is very easy to grasp but is there also somewhere a positive programme in store? As Chayenne wrote very convincingly, if these two parties are unbearable, why aren't there other parties in addition to tiny LMP and big Jobbik...? You criticise Gyurcsany, which is certainly alright, but it appears that you criticise him because he is still one of the very few political talents in Hungary and therefore (no matter how much despised) he cannot be truly dismissed. Gordon Bajnai indeed was a very convincing PM but there apparently were important reasons why he did not wish to continue in Hungarian politics in this high position. It always gets back to the question why those people who wish to have "normal" politicians that work in the interest of the average citizen do not have the power to establish such a regime.

[Paul]

JB - it's on the "Gyurcsány's "case": Not a very solid one in the first place" thread from September 15.

If that's too far back I can re-post it.

[Mutt Damon]

If MszP or the two successors will gradually disappear as Vandorlo suggests, where will those voters go? They will not turn conservative. Will they join he undecided crowd, boosting it to over 60 precent? One of the MSzPs will dissolve, probably taking in the members of the other half. The battle of the MszPs is coming.

What we really have to watch is the split of the Fidesz. It should crack under it's own weight. The Titanic already hit the iceberg, and there isn't enough life boats. You have to get into one until you can.

It will be very important for the new party to reach out for the Fidesz refugees. To take them in without humiliation. That new party has to be open in many ways. It definitely has to have some kind of christian/nationalist flavor to pick up the stray Fidesz sheep.

[Jano]

Mutt: "If MszP or the two successors will gradually disappear as Vandorlo suggests, where will those voters go?"

There are two scenarios IMHO,

A. MSZP falls, some of it's voters will vote the only viable non-right party, LMP, some will support the tiny parties that will appear as mushrooms after rain on the dead body of MSZP but mostly I think they'll go to the undecided crow. I think there is a pretty serious chance for an invalid election with landslide Fidesz victory+superstrong Jobbik presence. Very serious legitimation crisis follows and it's impossible to even guess beyond that point.

B: Maybe LMP, maybe some other new party will be finally show some potential and grow some balls so that they'll be able to attract and unite the anti-Orbán forces. This might also happen if they can score all the Anti-Orbán votes. This can lead to a hung parliament where Fidesz will have to seek a coalition or a minority government. We saw under Gyurcsány how pathetic the former can be while coalition between parties positioning themselves so far away from each other is almost impossible and could only end with one of the parties loosing credibility.

I know some of you are going to state that Fidesz-Jobbik coalition is soo likely, but then you obviously don't read kuruc or other hard right journalism and you have absolutely no clue about how they think.

I suspect that in this case the international pressure will point towards a Fidesz-LMP coalition which has a chance to work, but I'm a little sceptical about that too.

C: OV gets eaten by a giant spaghetti monster, Fidesz collapses, total chaos sets in, you continue...