It will be a happy new year

My optimism is legendary, and when I read this afternoon that Viktor Orbán and his friends are building a barricade around the parliament building I felt certain that Viktor Orbán will not be the prime minister of Hungary for long.

Sometimes they destroy barricades, sometimes they build them. Now they are in the building phase. Because they are afraid. Afraid even of those peaceful demonstrators who have been out on the streets with growing frequency.

But barricades don't help if the trust of the population and the world has been lost. Therefore the coming year will be an important one for the future of Hungary and the Hungarians.

Happy New Year to All of You

Demonstration on Kossuth Square, December 31, 2011

A new beginning

It will be an eventful year, I'm sure, and an exciting one. So, cheer up everybody!

Comments

[I love Hungary]

Hopefully, this time, the Hungarians won't swing back from the Facsists to the corrupt Communists.

Hopefully, the country will come to terms with its own past this time- so that it can move on to a conservative versus liberal, democratic, future.... protected by the rule of law.

'Twould, indeed, be a wonderful year.

[Some1]

@ I love Hungary, well if you do indeed live Hungary than you would stay away from such silly wishes as "move on to conservative". If you have missed the last year also, Fidesz supposed to be a conservative government. Look how much good and honesty that brought in.

[Some1]

Dear Hungary!
I wish you all the best for the new year! I wish you a government filled with people who do not only preach democracy but act by it, I wish that all positions will be filled with qualified people who's goal is better the country for all its citizens. I wish forgiveness and professionalism and that Hungary would stop finally looking back to the past but starts to move forward the future.

[Mutt Damon]

@Some1 How about a pony?

Happy New Year!

[Some1]

@ Mutt Damon, ....and a pony. lol Happy New Year Mutt!

[Paul]

I take it that was the new constitution El Presidente was waving around?

[Karl Pfeifer]

Thank you dear Eva. It is good to know that you are not resting on your laurels, that you are giving to those who do not know Hungarian the possibility to understand what is going on.
But your articles are also very instructive to those who know Hungarian. Your matter of fact style is appreciated and we all can learn from it.
Please keep up the good work
A healthy, successful and happy New Year to you and to the readers. BUÉK

[Ron]

Eva and to all the readers and commentators I wish you a healthy, prosperous and happy New Year. BUÉK.

The first news I was reading today, was that Jozsef Szajer resigned from all his party positions. However, he remain in Parliament.

Reason: potential conflict of interest, due to the fact that his wife becomes the Head Judge. And he does not want to give the impression that the judicial is influenced by politics.

Well this is too late. I already have this impression.

http://www.origo.hu/itthon/20120101-szajer-jozsef-lemondott-minden-fideszes-partfunkciojarol.html

[Eva S. Balogh]

Ron: "The first news I was reading today, was that Jozsef Szajer resigned from all his party positions."

My feeling is that it wouldn't have helped even if he had resigned before his wife was nominated for the post. After all, Tünde Handó is a friend of the Orbáns quite independently from her husband's position in the party.

[An]

Eva, I love the attitude! Happy New Year Everyone... 2012, here we come!

[I love Hungary]

@ some 1: Fidesz is Right Wing. It is NOT conservative.

[I love Hungary]

A "conservative" government would:

- be for the privatisation of pensions
- be pro-business
- be free market oriented, preferring, to the extent possible, market compelled policies, as opposed to those imposed by the state.
- be for the decentralisation of power to local government and individuals
- seek absolute separation of Church and State ( some failure of my own Republican Party on this one)
- mistrust any one individual to make decisions for an entire nation
- and therefore, support a strong and independent judiciary to check power
- for simliar reasons, support a vibrant and independent media
- support an independent and apolitical central bank

FIDESZ is Right Wing, in as much as it is Nationalist.

Other than that it is a Socialist organisation.

I'll let you put 1 + 1 together on that.

A more or less "conservative" party in Hungary was the MDF.

People say that this can't be because they partnered with the liberals..... but the fact is the liberals had a choice of cooperating with Communists on the Left, meanwhile, MDF resisted cooperating with the National Socialists on the Right.

That the liberals teamed up with conservatives in such a circumstance is fully understandable.

Liberals and Conservatives disagree on the means, but they both seek democracy and empowerment of the individual, as an "end".

Communists and National Socialists agree on means- but disagree on the end. Because the end for one is the isntallation of himself as all-powerful, and anhiliation of the other.

In their opinion, they must threfore use any tool at their disposal to extend their own, very personal, power.

That is why my dream for Hungary is the beginning of a true, liberal vs conservative debate.

[wolfi]

Very well said, I love Hungary!

And we have had these conservative/liberal coalitions in Germany for many years - and now (for the first time in I don't know how many years) in the UK too ...

Of course compromises are necessary, but that's the spirit of democracy!

I remember with horror the first years of the federal republic of Germany when the conservative CDU had a kind of stranglehold - their politics was (not in spirit, but in facts) almost as right-wing as the Nazi's ...

When I was young we still had laws against homosexuals and these so called "Christian family values" that are praised by Fidesz ...

There even was a law against unmarried couples staying together over night in an apartment or rented room - the proprietor would have gone to jail (in theory ...) and the consequence was that as a student I could not let my girlfriend stay overnight ...

Fidesz want a return to these 19th century type laws and rules, it seems.

PS: I wonder how long the EPP will allow Fidesz to stay.

[Mutt Damon]

The Budapest paramedics were called twice the usual on New Year's night. Most of the time they were called to intoxicated young people. The toxicology department in Peterfy Sandor St Hospital had a steady stream of "patients" from 7pm to 9am next day.

Does this mean anything?

[David]

"Does this mean anything?"

Possibly in the words of the Scriptures (Isaiah 22 verse 13):

"And behold joy and gladness, slaying oxen, and killing sheep, eating flesh, and drinking wine: let us eat and drink; for to morrow we shall die."

[Paul]

A litle OT - but did anyone see the New Year firework display in London? It was the first time I've watched it and it was stunning. I can't believe they do this every year, so I assume the sheer scale of it was part of the Queen's diamond jubilee and the Olympics (both happening in 2012).

It was a bit sobering to watch it shortly after we celebrated the Hungarian New Year, though. I have never seen such an amazing display of so many fireworks being let off at once. The cost must have been a meaningful fraction of Hungary's GDP.

[GDF]

I love Hungary: FIDESZ is Right Wing, in as much as it is Nationalist.

Other than that it is a Socialist organisation."

This sound familiar, national socialists, or nazis...

[Wondercat]

The KURIER, again: Yesterday and today. Yesterday here.

The leading article / editorial yesterday is headed "A scandal". But the scandal is not in Hungary; it is in Austria, where politicians fail to confront OV, and the comment is prompted by Fidesz' unilateral measures to re-write contracts between Hungarian entities (Hungarian citizens, firms, banks, even municipalities) and Austrian firms and banks. Paragraph by paragraph, below.

US-Außenministerin Clinton hat in einem Brief an Ungarns Premier Orbán schwere Bedenken über die Beseitigung verfassungsmäßiger Kontrollen und Schranken geäußert. Eine mutige Geste. (Mrs Clinton, US Secretary of State, has in a letter to Hungary's premier OV expressed serious concerns regarding his clearing away of constitutional checks and barriers. A bold gesture.)

Diese Courage fehlt europäischen Regierungschefs aller Couleur. Dass auch Bundeskanzler Faymann nichts sagt, ist unverständlich. Unerträglich ist das Schweigen der Politiker der Europäischen Volkspartei (EVP), zu der Ungarns regierende Fidesz gehört. Der Eindruck, die EVP stütze Orbán, ist nicht zu leugnen. Auch die EU-Kommission hat wohl vergessen, dass sie Hüterin der Verträge ist. Gegen den Demokratie-Abbau in Ungarn treten derzeit entschieden Künstler, Intellektuelle, Medien und viele Abgeordnete des Europäischen Parlaments auf. Dass Parteitreue innerhalb der EVP und der in der europäischen Familie wohl bedeutungslose Grundsatz, sich nicht einzumischen, mehr gelten als das parteiübergreifende Eintreten für Meinungsfreiheit und Rechtssicherheit, gibt Demokratie der Lächerlichkeit preis. (No such courage can be found among European governmental leaders of any stripe. That Chancellor Faymann does not speak out is incomprehensible, and the silence among politicians of the European Peoples' Party [EPP], to which Fidesz, now governing Hungary, belongs, is intolerable. The impression that the EPP supports OV is undeniable. The European Commission also appears to have forgot its role in defending treaties. Artists, intellectuals, the media, and many members of the European Parliament are taking a firm stance against the dismantling of democracy in Hungary. To value loyalty within the EPP and the principle of non-interference, itself likely meaningless within the European family, more highly than non-partisan intervention for freedom of expression and for the rule of law holds democracy up to scorn.)

Es liegt im österreichischen und europäischen Interesse, die Grundwerte zu verteidigen und für den Schutz der Unternehmen zu sorgen. Es geht schließlich auch um unsere Arbeitsplätze. (To defend basic values and to protect our enterprises is in Austrian and European interests. It is our jobs, after all, that are at stake.)

[Wondercat]

My apologies; the KURIER leading article below also is from yesterday. "The goulash dictator OV: Expropriation in direct opposition to the free internal market".

Stellen Sie sich vor, Sie zahlen in eine private Pensionskasse ein, um später ihre schmale Rente vom Staat aufzubessern zu können. Und schwupps, weg ist die Kohle. So geschehen in Ungarn. Ministerpräsident Viktor Orbán hat die privaten Pensionskassen kurzerhand verstaatlicht und das Geld teilweise dem Budget einverleibt. Eine kalte Enteignung, und das mitten in der Europäischen Union. (Imagine that you have been paying into a private-pension account to complement later the scanty pension that you will receive from the government. Whoops! Your money is gone! That is what has happened in Hungary. With a snap of his fingers Premier OV has nationalised private-pension funds and in part applied that money against the budget. Cold-blooded expropriation, and that in the centre of the European Union [EU].)

Ähnliches droht nun auch ausländischen Unternehmen, unter ihnen viele österreichische, die sich in Ungarn engagiert haben. In etlichen Wirtschaftsbereichen ist plötzlich Geld, das aus dem Ausland kommt und früher mit offenen Armen empfangen wurde, unerwünscht. Im Herzen des EU-Binnenmarktes wird Nicht-Ungarisches plötzlich aus dem Markt gedrängt und von Aufträgen abgeschnitten. Es soll und muss zum EU-Recht passen, wenn ein Land seine regionale Wirtschaft fördert. Der Gulasch-Diktator Orbán schlägt aber einen ganz anderen Weg ein: Er setzt auf Re-Verstaatlichung und will Firmen, die nach Ungarn expandiert haben, ihr „Werk“ zum halben Buchwert abkaufen. Auch das ist kalte Enteignung. (A similar fate now threatens foreign firms, many Austrian ones among them, that have involved themselves in Hungary. In some regions of the economy, money from abroad, which earlier was welcomed with open arms, is suddenly no longer desired. What is not Hungarian is now, at the heart of the EU's internal market, abruptly forced from that market and denied contracts. For a country to foster its regional economy is right and proper. But OV, the goulash dictator, takes quite a different route: He plumps for re-nationalisation and proposes to buy from firms that have expanded into Hungary their assets at half the book value. This too is cold-blooded expropriation.)

Vielleicht ist der laute Aufschrei in der EU ob dieser Vorgänge ja in der Silvesterknallerei untergegangen. Zu hören war jedenfalls wenig. Ob ungarische Bürger oder ausländische Firmen: Sie alle verdienen Rechtssicherheit –, die auch mit Druck eingefordert werden muss. (Perhaps the New Year's fireworks have drowned out any loud outcry from the EU over these events. Certainly very little has been heard. But all, whether Hungarian citizens or foreign firms, deserve security under the law - for which demands must be pressed.)

[Odin's Lost Eye]

Much of what the Viktator has done against individuals or companies may injure that individual or Company.. The Governments of the countries which are home to those individuals or companies may and probably have warned Hungary. Governments may warn, Companies may warn, individuals may warn, NGOs may warn, but until the offence is committed courts cannot act.
It is now up to those individuals or companies who have been victimised to seek redress in the courts. Their Governments may (and will) give moral support and advice, but in the end it is up to the individuals or companies to decide what to do next.

However since Midnight yesterday (1st Jan 2012) the Hungarians have run afoul of several European laws. Nothing could be done until the offences were actually committed. The law cannot anticipate an offence. Now they are being committed and the fun and games can start. It will take time but the longer it goes on the bigger the punishment will be.

As an aside but still vaguely on topic I see the Hungarian Constitutional Court has overturned the laws on ‘skip diving’. This shows the total lack of understanding of the position in law by that court on this topic.

I will explain. If I make, buy, grow, or are given something it is mine (to do with as I please). When I wish to get rid of it I can either just throw it away, which is an offence (littering) or place it in the bin provided by the local ‘authority. That is it now belongs to the ‘authority’ as by putting it in their bin I gave it to them.
Since everything has some value, anyone who removes stuff from the bin is stealing it from the authority.

I do not know what the implications of this ruling by the Hungarian Constitutional Court are, but a ‘Legal Eagle’ could use it as an important precedent in a case.

[Leo]

Wondercat/Kurier: "To value loyalty within the EPP and the principle of non-interference ... more highly than non-partisan intervention for freedom of expression and for the rule of law holds democracy up to scorn."

It is really time for the EVP to distance itself from Fidesz. There should be no place for an anti-democratic movement within the EVP. Fidesz must be excluded from its ranks.

A bit of (inside or outside) pressure may promote this difficult process. Any suggestions how we could help to make it happen? Maybe a standard letter to send to the EP caucus, the national EPP parties (and copies to the leading newspapers)?

[Joseph Simon]

Éva an optimist? There is nothing but pessimism and outright silliness written here ad nauseam. And who would replace Orbán? Gyurcsány or the Jobbik?

[BestBudapestDentist.com]

Dear Eva,

happy new year! Where can I find an email address to you?

Best regards,
Andrew

[sackhoes contributor]

My personal prediction is that Orban and Matolcsy will not survive 2012 in office. Long before the 2014 elections and preempting a possible uprising by the people, internal opposition in the Fidesz will force them out of office.
It would not be the first time a Hungarian Prime Minister would be discarded mid-cycle. The MSzP got rid of Medgyessy and then later, Gyurcsany. Orban, I believe, will the next to be voted out on a constructive no confidence vote.
The growing opposition against Orban does not seem to accrue growing support for Gyurcsany or Mesterhazy or the LMP. (Only Jobbik, sadly, is increasing in the polls.) But even if they had a groundswell of support behind them they could bot cash it in until the 2014 elections.
Fidesz, however, is in the position to change its own course by getting rid of both its political leader and its economic guru. I believe – or at least I hope – that some of the Fidesz leadership, that for the last 20 years has been marching lockstep with the only leader they have known are beginning to wake up and panic at the prospect of following Orban/Matolcsy as they drive Hungary politically and economically over the cliff. Soon their sense of self-preservation will overcome their fear and secretly start organizing an internal coup d’etat.
There are many reasons for them to do it now. With their 2/3rd majority secure until 2014, they still have the votes to undo some of the changes made by Orban. They can reconcile their differences with the world and return to a European and Atlantic course. They also know that if they don’t do it, the voters will sweep them away in 2014.
There is nothing that requires Fidesz to profess the current ideas and policies. There is nothing “conservative” or “right wing” about thumbing their nose at the EU or the US. It’s just Orban and Matolcsy and their egos that insist on it.
A brave early harbinger of change was the recent interview Gyorgy Prohle gave. His boss, Martonyi, also struck a far more polished and European stance in his letter. Let’s hope they mark the beginning of the end of Orban’s premiership.

[Vilmos]

Sackhoes wrote "They also know that if they don’t do it, the voters will sweep them away in 2014.”

In a normal democracy, that would be the case, but the new system seems designed to ensure that nothing like that would/could happen.