The approaching crisis: Viktor Orbán on a collision course

Below you will find a facsimile of U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's letter to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. I might add that the letter, along with all the others he received, didn't make the slightest impression on him. This morning in an interview on Magyar Rádió he emphasized that no one can tell legislators elected by the Hungarian people what kinds of laws to enact. Once the laws are passed, the European Commission may object to some of the laws' provisions. In such cases the Hungarian government will decide whether the objections are warranted or not.

As far as the negotiations with the IMF-EU delegation are concerned, according to Orbán, they will resume in early January. These negotiations are "important but not indispensable."

I highly recommend taking a look at a fairly lengthy discussion on the Hungarian situation vis-à-vis the European Union and the IMF-EU negotiations on CNBC. In addition there is an article in Bloomberg and another on the CNBC site.

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Comments

[oneill]

"As far as the negotiations with the IMF-EU delegation are concerned, according to Orbán, they will resume in early January"

"According to Orban" is the key phrase in that respect. It seems the markets don't believe him (forint presently trading at 314 to the Euro and the fall is continuing) and are awaiting for the IMF/EU to give a more reliable confirmation

[Gábor]

It is an interesting game, Orbán will send Fellegi to Washington in order to discuss with high level IMF officials, among the Lagarde and directors of the Fund. A highly unusual move gien that the IMF used to send delegations to the respectie countries and not quite common in the sense that contacting the leaders of the IM suggest the intentio to achieve political concessions. Furthermore, the IMF won't lend money without the EU's consent, so one can also assume they want to use the IMF to put pressure on the EC. However, otherwise it seems to be a bit desperate move, there is no chnace to get the political cincessions from the IMF without the governments behind it. It would be better to start a diplomatic offensive with those governments and not with the Fund, that has no right to deviate from its rules - see the Rosenberg interview on the issue of an SBA. (Adiitionally, I really could not see Lagarde relaxing the IMF's pressure on Orbán after Sarkozy had made public his distaste with Orbán in the L'Express.)

[An]

What collision course? The Hungarian government has the money to give cars to more government officials (expanding the circle who is entitled to use these cars paid by taxpayers for official AND for personal use)

http://www.origo.hu/itthon/20111229-tobb-tucat-allami-vezeto-kap-kocsit-es-sofort.html

[Paul]

Watching the FX rate is like witnessing a slow-motion car crash at the moment.

It's bad enough sitting here in the UK watching my Hungarian savings being flushed down the toilet, but what must it be like for the Hungarians?Anything that's imported now costs about 20% more than it did just 6 months ago.

Of course people can live without a new washing machine or TV, but what about petrol and gas? And what else is imported - even quite a lot of food these days.

Still at least OV will be able to boast about an even better 'balance' of trade!

[Gábor]

Paul: Anything that's imported now costs about 20% more than it did just 6 months ago.

Well, but the good, but still unreasoably expensive Hungarian wines suddenly turned out to be cheap 5-10 euros ones. ;)

[Some1]

According to the Corriere della Sera in the Parliament of the EU they started to further investigate the Treaty of Lisbon's seventh article that deals with the voting power of those who disrespect the basic rights of the EU. (No source was given although.)

[koeszmeod]

Some1: the source is the Brussel correspondent of Corriere della Sera
It was mentioned in the following Hungarian article:
http://www.hir24.hu/kulfold/2011/12/30/felfuggesztheti-az-unio-a-magyar-szavazati-jogot/

[koeszmeod]

Wall Street Journal
Hungary PM’s Mail Traffic Peaks as Year Ends
http://blogs.wsj.com/emergingeurope/2011/12/30/hungary-pm%E2%80%99s-mail-traffic-peaks-as-year-ends/

[Some1]

What is very interesting that there is not one leading political news from any side (left, right, conservative, liberal, etc) that would sympathize with Orban, and only journalist (like Thorpe) or some politicians (and I will not mentions names here as it was often discussed) who have some personal history (wine, dine, entertain) with him who fell temporarily under his spell or bought into Orban's personal agenda well wrapped in the "benefit of Hungary" blanket. (Now, that Thorpe as a representative of a well respected international news source even now cuddles Orban's decisions raises some very important questions about integrity, but that is something that the BBC should sort out before they will become that last ones to realize that they missed the real story.)
In any case, it is telling that no one can sympathize wit this mad man (well maybe Chavez).

[Csaba K. Zoltani]

Unfortunately most Hungarians do not have a command of English or understand the subtle meaning of words. Many rely on Gyurcsany acolytes to 'filter' their news.

In the NOL, http://nol.hu/kulfold/hillary_clinton_levele_orban_viktornak_-_itt_a_teljes_szoveg#kommentek

The 'translation' contains numerous distortions. An example:

"Sok elemző véli úgy, hogy a valódi bírói függetlenség érdekében a Országos Igazságszolgáltatási Tanácsnak kellene adni a bírók kinevezésének és előléptetésének jogát."

The original says something different.

The translation should state: "Számos szakértő elemző ajánlotta (javasolta), hogy az OITnak szerepet adjanak (szerepet vállaljon) a bírói előléptetésekben és kinevezésekben, a valódi bírói függetlenség biztosítása érdekében."

That is "be given a role" is not the same as "kellene adni a...." And where is the "jog" that is "right" in the English text? A role means szerep, and not jog.

There are numerous other 'mistranslations' in the Hungarian text.

[Gábor]

Dear Mr. Zoltani, I'm sure readers of the blog - especially those with English as their mother tongue - will appreciate your translation of the letter. Until they can express their gratitude, please allow me to express my heartfelt congratulations for your emnlightening contribution, especially for your chivalrous intervention saving Ms. Clinton from being misunderstood.

[Eva S. Balogh]

Csaba K. Zoltani: "Sok elemző véli úgy, hogy a valódi bírói függetlenség érdekében a Országos Igazságszolgáltatási Tanácsnak kellene adni a bírók kinevezésének és előléptetésének jogát."

I'm afraid the Népszabadság's translation is quite accurate. Here is the original:

"Many expert analysts have suggested the National Council of Judges be given a role in judicial promotions and appointments in order to ensure true judicial independence."

In your opinion "many expert analysts" is "some expert analysts" as you translated it?

Why did you leave out the word "real" before "role"? Or what is wrong with "right" being "jog." I'm afraid either your English leaves something to be desired or something is wrong with your political views.

[Mutt Damon]

@Csaba The two translations are very close. This is a the typical desparate hairsplitting to divert the attention away from the content.

I'm sure the government controlled "honest" information sources will point these distorsions out to the Hungarian public.

[Wondercat]

@Gábor / Zoltani ur: Well, yes, I indeed, as someone whose mother tongue is English, AM grateful for discussions of how English variously can be put into Hungarian, with explications of why one approach might be preferred over another, or of what emphases are shifted by a particular approach (and of how the shifts are achieved). Thank you, Mr Zoltani, for taking up this matter -- and thank you, Gábor, for prompting me to express my gratitude.

[wolfi]

Back to the letter by Hillary Clinton itself:

It really uses strong language - from one diplomat to the other.

I wonder what people-in-the-know in Hungary and Fidesz itself will make out of it.

For me it looks very disturbing.

PS:

The forint oscillated between 314 and 317 today - what will it be like next year ?

I should have exchanged only a few €s - but one big problem with Hungarian banks is: There is no overdraft on your account - so if some electricity or gas bill e g arrives early - it doesn't get paid and there's a lot of hassle ...

PPS: I wish everybody here a Better New Year!

[Eva S. Balogh]

To Csaba K. Zoltán, Your problem is that you cannot translate verbatim because what you came up with is not idiomatic Hungarian.

Let's start with "role." Yes, the first meaning of "role" is szerep but in this sentence it means something else. It means "funkció" or in certain cases it can mean "kötelesség" and, yes even "right."

One thing is sure I wouldn't ask you to do any translation. One has to be flexible in order to give back the intended meaning. And the intended meaning is that the Council should have a say (should have the right) in the appointment of judges. Doesn't matter how you slice it.

[enuff]

wish I could be like the average Hungarians that didn't care to read such news, it is slowly destroying my holiday moods..in fact all pleasant moods are all gone by now!

[koeszmeod]

Enuff:
I agree. These are the last days of the Weimar Republic.

[kormos]

@ Paul
"It's bad enough sitting here in the UK watching my Hungarian savings being flushed down the toilet...."
Please do not forget that nobody forced you to invest in Hungary. Beside the UK currency will buy more forints. You are lucky!

[Eva S. Balogh]

Kormos to Paul: "Please do not forget that nobody forced you to invest in Hungary."

Don't fret. Soon enough no one will invest in Hungary. That will be real joy!!!

[enuff]

Paul,
for your sanity, stop watching the FX! just enjoy UK :)

Enuff,
Yikes! swiver ...

Have anyone seen this "tribute" to "His excellency" titled "Kis ember - hát itt a vége !" ?
just to lighten the mood..it helped me :)

http://youtu.be/-4-IzpcFhbU

[enuff]

koeszmeod - "These are the last days of the Weimar Republic. "

Yikes! swiver ...

[kormos]

and now I insert here the following:
"Dear Ms. Scheppele,
I have read with interest your analyses published on Paul Krugman’s blog in the New York Times. As the Ambassador of Hungary to the US, I must call attention to factual errors or misconceptions if they occur. Your articles contained such errors and misconceptions, so please allow me to make the following observations.
First, the question of legitimacy. You rightly point out that the current government, led by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, enjoys a supermajority in Parliament as a result of free and fair elections. It is worth mentioning that Hungary’s mixed election law is the very reason why the socialist opposition party still has a relatively large representation in the National Assembly. Were Hungarian elections organized based solely on a “winner-takes-all” system used both in the United Kingdom and the United States, and not on the so called "mixed” system, the Socialist Party would today be represented by only two MPs out of the 176 individual constituencies.
The new electoral law, which you criticize, maintains this mixed system. The redrawing of the electoral districts was necessary in order to allow a reduction of the size of the Parliament from 386 deputies to 199, a much more reasonable number for a small country like Hungary. It also balances out the unconstitutionally uneven districts that prevailed under the former law. Your statement that the new electoral districts “are drawn in such a way that no other party on the political horizon besides Fidesz is likely to win elections” strikes one as a rushed, emotional opinion. The numbers run by the think-tank you refer to are contradicted by the calculations of other think-tanks. The problem with all these calculations is that they assume people will vote the same way as before, a hazardous assumption in any country, but particularly in Hungary where governments have changed hands five times out of six elections. Parties win or lose elections not because of election systems but because of the appeal of their messages presented to voters.
Second, your assertion that Hungarian voters had no idea before the elections of 2010 that Fidesz would make significant changes to the constitution is not correct. There had been a long-standing consensus among the major political parties in Hungary that the current constitution was in need of an overhaul. The text of the constitution itself explicitly stated that this was a provisional constitution. Therefore, it had been widely understood among constitutional scholars and politicians of all stripes that whoever is able to get the needed majority would and should touch this issue. You might recall that the last Hungarian government to have a two-thirds majority, the Socialist-Liberal coalition of the mid-nineties, actually wanted to change the constitution, but the two coalition partners were unable to agree between themselves how to go about the changes. Furthermore, the Socialist Party during the last elections was campaigning hard on this issue, telling voters that if Fidesz were to receive a supermajority in Parliament, it would adopt a new constitution. This claim by the Socialist Party was widely covered in the media and Fidesz never denied it. In fact, Orbán said publicly during the campaign that: “Little majority, little changes; big majority, big changes”.
Third, I would respectfully ask that you to take a closer look at the judicial branch and the new law governing it. You say that the courts are increasingly dependent on the Government – but your assertion is a collection of “what ifs”. I know of no law that could not potentially be abused. But to pre-judge the outcome of the reforms is to deny judges their professional independence and doubt their personal integrity. This is a sweeping insult to not only the newly appointed justices but also to thousands of judges across Hungary. Just the other day,
the expanded Constitutional Court – which you call “functionally dead” – struck down several provisions of the new penal code and the media law, and abolished the entire law on churches. These are hardly the decisions of judges that would be mere puppets of politicians.
Similarly, why do you assume that the new Budget Council will be out to overthrow a non-Fidesz government, rather than do what it is meant to do, that is, endeavor to prevent the type of totally irresponsible fiscal policy that the previous two socialist governments had followed?
Fourth, I was surprised to read your insinuation that it is undemocratic for the length of the terms of certain high office holders to go beyond the election cycle. As you know, it is actually very common in democracies to divorce the terms of appointment of certain high office holders from the political cycle in order to assure their independence and freedom from political pressure. This is the case in the US and in many other democratic countries.
That said, you made some factual mistakes. The term of the head of the State Audit Office is 12 years both under the old and the new law – thus, no change. In the case of the head of the Budget Council, there is actually a shortening of the term of office: under former law, the head of the Council was appointed for nine years, while the new law says that it is appointed for six years.
I do not mind fair and informed criticism, but as an economist my belief is that facts should always come first. There is usually a good, innocuous explanation for Fidesz’s initiatives if you look into the facts. Factual mistakes and prejudices undermine the credibility of your arguments in the eyes of those who know the facts and mislead those who are not familiar with the facts, i.e. the vast majority of your readers. I doubt that this was your intention. I agree that the speed and depth of changes can be overwhelming, even to experienced observers of Hungary such as you. But to impute at every turn nefarious intentions to Fidesz is tabloid journalism, not serious scholarship.

Yours sincerely,
György Szapáry
Ambassador of Hungary
Washington, DC
December 27, 2011

[enuff]

geez, I've got to spell check before posting

I mean shiver not swiver !

[David]

Lets face it, Viktor likes the Horthy era that much he has decided on an economic policy that will bring back the Pengo....