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« Renewed international effort at turning Hungary around and the reaction of Viktor Orbán | Main | János Kornai on centralization and decentralization. Part I »

January 29, 2012

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Paul (the original one!)

One point that never seems to be raised is the fact that Jobbik appeared almost out of nowhere. We talk about them as if they were an accepted (and permanent) part of Hungarian politics, and yet they didn't exist as a parliamentary party just two years ago. They were formed only in 2003 and in 2006, even in alliance with MIÉP, they polled only 2.2% of the votes.

So, how did such a new and insignificant party grow so quickly? Previous far-right parties have burned briefly and not very brightly, but Jobbik appears almost from nowhere, gains a significant number of MPs, and to many now appears to be an accepted, 'mainstream' party.

My answer is not original - Orbán. In order to foster his own party's chances, he created an environment where nationalism, jingoism, racism, even fascism were not only permitted, but actively encouraged. It was not only OK to speak openly about things that previously were only muttered in private, but it actually became 'normal' to have and to promote those ideas.

Fidesz gained a great deal from this opening of Pandora's box, but it also gave Jobbik a huge boost. As Wikipedia puts it: “Jobbik was perfectly positioned to capitalize on the mainstream growth in nationalist sentiment associated with the 2006 protests in Hungary. After October 2006 it felt confirmed in the belief that the events of 1989 had essentially been a sham, because “Communists” were still in charge. Subsequent events permitted the party to consolidate its growth.”

And therein lies the answer to the oft asked question, "where does Fidesz stop and Jobbik begin?". The answer is that there is no line between the two, in fact there is not even an overlap - what we have here is a continuum, with right-of-centre conservatism at one end and a modern day Arrow Cross at the other.

The reason why it's impossible to draw a line between Fidesz and Jobbik is that they are not really two parties - Jobbik is effectively the right-wing of Fidesz. Both were created by Orbán - a right-wing, nationalistic, autocratic 'main' party, and a loony right secondary 'party'. One to govern, the other to act as opposition and to ensure that, no matter what Fidesz do, they will always look reasonable compared to Jobbik's rantings.

So far, still not so original, but the really worrying point of this analysis is that, looked at in this way, Orbán didn't gain just under 53% of the Hungarian vote in 2010, he effectively polled nearly 70%.

This is not just the size of the 'revolution' Orbán created (and therefore the size of the problem we have to overcome), but, much more disturbingly, this is how more than two thirds of Hungarian voters really think, given freedom and encouragement to express their opinions.

Orbán may not be supported by most Hungarians any more, mainly for financial reasons, but he still speaks for the vast majority of them – even if sometimes he has to let Vona speak on his behalf.

Paul (the original one!)

By the way, there was an excellent article in the Guardian yesterday on the Roma in Hungary, and especially the behaviour of Jobbik:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jan/27/hungary-roma-living-in-fear?INTCMP=SRCH

Jano

"A pro-Russian stance is curious considering Jobbik's wide ranging anti-communist rhetoric."

Come on Eva, don't play the naiva, I'd be pretty surprised if you haven't heard about the reports on the Russian undercover foreign policy in Eastern Europe.

Most of the hard right parties receive enormous financial support from the Kremlin from Bulgaria through Hungary to the Czech Republic. I'll try to look up the article that explains it much better than how I could, I think the intel comes from one of the wikileaks cables, but I don't remember exactly. Point is, this is not a conspiracy theory, but the CIAs strong suspicion.

Ron

It seems that Jano is right. I found this article from 2009.

http://www.riskandforecast.com/post/bulgaria/russia-s-far-right-friends_349.html

Mutt Damon

What happened to the Jobbik-Iran axis?

The Russian intentions are clear on this. Destabilizing Eastern Europe, turn them against the western allies. The Jobbik would be perfect. But the Russian bear will not be popular with the voters. I don't think they will like it. They will so not like it that this could actually be a perfect disinformation to discredit the Jobbik.

Iran seems more logical. A country working on nukes to wipe out Israel. Jobbik voters will like that.

Odin's Lost Eye

I have known about this for some time. It refers to Hungary and it reads: -

“Personnel not included in the Hungarian Army or Air Force shall not receive any form of military training or military air training as defined in Annex II.”.

And Annex II says
“DEFINITION OF MILITARY AND MILITARY AIR TRAINING
1. Military training is defined as: the study of and practice in the use of war material specially designed or adapted for army purposes, and training devices relative thereto; the study and carrying out of all drill or movements which teach or practice evolutions performed by fighting forces in battle; and the organised study of tactics, strategy and staff work.
2. Military air training is defined as: the study of and practice in the use of war material specially designed or adapted for air force purposes, and training devices relative thereto; the study and practice of all specialised evolutions, including formation flying, performed by aircraft in the accomplishment of an air force mission; and the organised study of air tactics, strategy and staff work.”

Mr Vona do you or any of your twerps know anything about this? Do you know where it comes from? Your 'Rancid Right' aint allowed to play at soldiers

GW

Odin's Lost Eye is absolutely right to focus on the law. Even under Fidesz's constitution, the state must insist upon a monopoly on the use of violence. The government may now be under the mistaken belief that Jobbik's "Guards" playing soldier are harmless, but the potential for danger to the state, in the form of civil war or anarchy (think of the partisan militia in Lebanon or Somalia), is real and — not least for any real conservative and Hungarian patriot — the government's negligence here is rather unbelieveable.

Odin's Lost Eye

Ah! GW there may be a problem here as the New Constitution may not recognise it as it refers to something which happened in the year 1947. It is Article 14 of the Treaty of Paris 1947. This was signed by Hungary and bought peace for her from the United Nations (even with the Romanians).

If Fidesz do not know this and abrogate any part of this treaty, then any of the signatories (or their successors nations) -including Slovakia- could say that they are ‘back at war’ with Hungary!
Hum Ho!

peter stark

@"government's negligence here is rather unbelievable"...let's try to leave western naiveté behind: we're dealing with the Balkan mind here--Jobbik is a creation of Fidesz and does their bidding. Now, 'brown shirts'....there's a comparison!

I love Hungary

@ Paul, the answer to where FIDESZ ends and JOBBIK begins would be in an election result that forced Orban to seek a coalition.


I love Hungary

Oh and btw. that woman holding the FeeeCK EU sign is Keith Richard's mom.

Odin's Lost Eye

Just out of interest have a look at http://thecontrarianhungarian.wordpress.com/.
It shows just how ignorant people can become. Look at the judgement and these folk are appeal judges!

riviera1

"We're not democrats.."

Of course, this is a politically impossible statement by a party leader. So, what's going on? Let's put out a surmise: Fidesz was losing support to Jobbik. To shear Jobbik of right wing support and keep it only to the lunatic fringe, Vona comes out with his statement. In one fell swoop, Fidesz is strengthened and is reestablished as the only viable alternative to keeping the rabid Jobbik out of power! Neat. I'll leave my fellow bloggers to guess who is orchestrating the whole affair....

Odin's Lost Eye

If anyone else is interested I think this may be of concern to Jobbik: -

Article 4 (of the same treaty viz Paris 1947). It reads

“Hungary, which in accordance with the Armistice Agreement has taken measures for dissolving all organisations of a Fascist type on Hungarian territory, whether political, military or para-military, as well as other organisations conducting propaganda, including revisionist propaganda, hostile to the United Nations, shall not permit in future the existence and activities of organisations of that nature which have as their aim denial to the people of their democratic rights”.

The real ‘punch line is the last part “(Hungary) shall not permit in future the existence and activities of organisations of that nature which have as their aim denial to the people of their democratic rights”.

In this Hungary in the form of BOTH MZsP and Fidesz have dropped another clanger.

Fidesz must now take action with Vona’s quotation as reported by our good Hostess ** “We are not communists, we are not fascists, we are not national socialists, but we are not democrats either." **.

My My perhaps Fidesz also into that catagory too.

whoever

"A pro-Russian stance is curious considering Jobbik's wide ranging anti-communist rhetoric."

And a pro-Turkish stance is very funny giving the blathering about God and Christianity by the deeply un-Christian Vona and friends. Plus of course the subjugation of Hungary for a couple of hundred years. How all this fits together, is anyone's guess, but it indicates the scrambled-egg composition of Jobbik on issues apart from dog-whistle hatred.

Actually there is a sensible argument for a closer alignment with Turkey, as Turkey needs supporters in the EU, and potential export markets. But who believes any Hungarian politician... on any subject, not least canny Turkish politicians and diplomats?

Eva S. Balogh

whoever: "And a pro-Turkish stance is very funny giving the blathering about God and Christianity by the deeply un-Christian Vona and friends."

I was also baffled.

GJ

Of course Jobbik are 'Christian', however, the pro-Turkish stance might make sense within the context of their pro-Palestinian line (Morvai is probably the most vocal on this).

One thing that distinguishes Jobbik from many of their colleagues in western Europe is their preference for antisemitism and anti-Zionism over the anti-Muslim rhetoric pumped out by e.g. the English Defence League, or Geert Wilders's PVV, which wouldn't win votes in Hungary.

Dubious

A number of the far-right believe in some great Turanian language family/group of people which includes the Hungarians. The Turanian language family includes Turks, and so Turks are seen as cousins.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hungarian_Turanism

I can't find the quote, but I think Schmitt made remarks indicating his belief in the shared kinship of Hungarians and Turkmen on his tour to Central Asian dictatorships.

The same people believe the Finno-Ugric language family was some kind of linguistic conspiracy to demean the Hungarian nation.

CharlieH

"I Love Hungary" - It's not - It's Mick Jagger's. Don't be so juvenile!

Johnny Boy

At least Vona is not lying like MSZP.
Neither are democrats, but MSZP is lying about it.

Paul (the original one!)

Johnny's back! The Fidesz wobble must be over.

Mutt Damon

There was am article on index.hu today about JOBBIK. The title is "Very young, very Hungarian, in a very bad mood". Apparently the JOBBIK is big on Facebook. 3 times of their party membership "liked" them (38,900). On Facebook if you want to see the wall posts you have to "like" them. It's like "liking" the devil to have a heads up on doomsday.

They referenced an English language study "Populism in Europe: Hungary:

http://www.box.com/s/j1qsca1lsdep8jrlbakl

Kirsten

Odin, I like the reference to the Peace Treaty of 1947 but who should establish that Hungary violates this treaty? The UN? And has this treaty not lost a bit of its impact with Hungary joining NATO?

Jobbik's: "We are no democrats." I congratulate Jobbik to this clearness of vision. It would be good if others were also able to evaluate to what extent they consider democracy a desirable political system and to what extent they dislike key elements of it (systematic possibility to change leadership, periodical elections, participation, free speech, respect for own and other people's rights etc.). I do not mind at all that Jobbik stated clearly what they stand for, but the society should take this very seriously and in particular the growing support for Jobbik.

The pro-Turkish stance of Jobbik, motivated mainly by the critical position towards Israel, is too revealing. So Hungarianness in Jobbik's interpretation is nothing more than antisemitism...?

David

"Of course Jobbik are 'Christian', however, the pro-Turkish stance might make sense within the context of their pro-Palestinian line (Morvai is probably the most vocal on this)."

Traditionally on the nationalist right "Christian" really just means "not Jewish", the term doesn't have any theological content.

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