Hungarian Spectrum

Gordon Bajnai is the new Hungarian prime minister

Today was the day. The so-called "civic organizations," apparently all five hundred of them, organized a mass demonstration in front of parliament to demand immediate elections. They claimed to be the voice of the "people." I must say that if five hundred "civic organizations" managed to gather only 5,000-7,000 people that is not a great feat. The number of demonstrators seems about right. With few exceptions this is average number, perhaps a little more, for a mass demonstration. My problem is with the five hundred civic organizations. I didn't even know there were that many in Hungary. In addition to the human demonstrators there were also sixty geese who were let loose by members of the Hungarian Guard. This is the newest form of protest against Gordon Bajnai, whose firm at one point was involved with closing a company that was exporting chickens and geese to Russia. The market dried up and the company went bankrupt. Bajnai apparently had nothing to do with the affair, but such trivial considerations never bother the Hungarian right. So, besides dealing with the human demonstrators, the police tried to catch the sixty geese as well.

After a while the peaceful demonstration turned out to be not so peaceful because there are always people who join in order to create trouble. In addition, in far-right circles there are visible signs of hostility among the various splinter groups. The members of the "civic organizations," for example, turned their backs on Gábor Vona, head of Jobbik, when he rose to speak. Most of the civic people left peacefully enough, but the 200 or so Hungarian guardists attacked the police and at one point even tried to overturn an ambulance. In the scuffle three guardists were slightly injured. About 25 "Goy Bikers" also arrived; they were ready to drive straight into the police cordon. Several policemen were injured in the fracas while over ten demonstrators were arrested. The Goy Bikers led about 1,000 people to the Castle district to give President Sólyom a petition with the request that he dissolve parliament, thereby allowing for early elections. The only problem with this brilliant suggestion is that President Sólyom has no constitutional authority to oblige.

Meanwhile inside the building there was a three-hour debate preceding the vote on Gordon Bajnai's acceptance as the new prime minister of Hungary. The first speaker was Ferenc Gyurcsány who in an elegant and moving speech asked politicians on both sides of the aisle to support Bajnai in the interest of the country. Bajnai in a sober speech emphasized that he has no political ambitions and he will concentrate on solving the country's economic problems. Again, he asked for the support of the opposition parties as well. The answer was swift. Tibor Navracsics made it clear that no help can be expected from his party. It is unfortunate that Navracsics's speeches are normally no more than ad hominem attacks on his political opponents. Today's speech was no different--to the great delight of his colleagues in Fidesz. Károly Herényi, as an independent but formerly head of the MDF caucus, also made a speech in which he criticized Bajnai's program mostly because it is not yet apparent whether the new prime minister's plans include reforms or concentrate only on austerity measures. Gábor Fodor of SZDSZ, known for his polite ways, felt that he had to say something about the uncivilized behavior of Fidesz and the Christian Democratic leaders after the Navracsics speech. At least Viktor Orbán forbade the Fidesz members to cackle during Bajnai's speech. Because this was their plan! On the other hand, he was the only party leader who refused to shake hands with the new prime minister.

Ildikó Lendvai's urbane and eloquent speeches will be greatly missed. Every time she spoke it was a delight to listen to the well formulated phrases and appropriate literary references. She was witty and sometimes cutting but always fundamentally polite. She is a good speaker and a great debater. I'm afraid that Attila Mesterházy, her most likely successor, will not be able to fill her shoes. At least not verbally. He stumbled several times when misreading the text in front of him. The other side was gripped with fits of laughter. Let's hope he improves.

The vote was no surprise. In order for Bajnai to become prime minister, he needed 193 affirmative votes. He received 204 yeas and eight abstentions. MSZP unanimously supported the candidate while out of the nineteen-member SZDSZ caucus sixteen voted for him and three (Béki, Gulyás and Velkey) abstained, breaking party discipline. Fidesz, KDNP, and MDF members were present but didn't vote. After Gordon Bajnai was sworn in, Ferenc Gyurcsány rose from the customary chair of the prime minister and moved to the very last row, taking his place there as an ordinary backbencher. I have a very high opinion of Ferenc Gyurcsány's intelligence and political savvy, but listening to Gordon Bajnai's measured words and looking at his calm demeanor I think that perhaps his temperament is better suited to the turbulent times Hungary is witnessing. In any case, as soon as Bajnai was sworn in the Hungarian forint strengthened. At the moment one euro is worth 288 forints. Only a few days ago it was close to 310. All the ministers, the seven new ones and the eight old ones, will make their appearance in front of the various parliamentary committes. The procedure has already begun. After all, time is of the essence.

The end of political chaos or just a brief respite?

I stopped writing about daily events in Hungary because it was impossible to construct a coherent story. I think I left off at the point that György Surányi, the leading candidate for prime minister, withdrew his name from consideration and SZDSZ suggested Lajos Bokros for the post. In fact, they more than suggested; they announced that it was Bokros or nobody. Bokros appeared eager enough and he apparently confirmed his interest to the SZDSZ politicians who suggested his name. By that time MSZP was desperate enough to accept Bokros as long as SZDSZ would be a willing partner in the new government. But as soon as MSZP announced that Bokros was fine as a candidate, Bokros suddenly announced that he no longer wished to be prime minister. I'm not going to go into the accusations hurled at Bokros from the SZDSZ side or Bokros's rather murky attempts to explain away his change of heart. But he was the second candidate acceptable to both MSZP and SZDSZ who decided he didn't want the job. By that time, even friends of SZDSZ and MSZP thought that what was going on was a joke.

At this point MSZP proposed Gordon Bajnai, the minister of economic development in charge of the large amounts of money Hungary received from the European Union. Bajnai's economic/austerity plans, outlined in the media, are very close to the ideas of the Reform Alliance that SZDSZ wholeheartedly supported. So one would have thought that Bajnai would be acceptable to the liberal party. But no, the SZDSZ presidium was evenly split between those who supported Bajnai and those who opposed him. The presidium has thirteen members including the president, Gábor Fodor, but Gábor Demszky wasn't present. Therefore the result was 6:6. At this point pandemonium must have broken out within the SZDSZ leadership, especially among members of the parliamentary caucus where the followers of János Kóka, head of the caucus, are in the majority. I heard of members of parliament who threatened to leave the party if the presidium didn't accept Bajnai. I could foresee a situation where those who disagreed with the hotheads in the presidium would simply leave the caucus and sit with the independents and support a Bajnai government from there. The SZDSZ presidium and the caucus negotiated all day long.

Sometime during the afternoon Gordon Bajnai decided to put an end to this squabbling one way or the other. He told SZDSZ that he would wait until midnight. If SZDSZ's top brass didn't come up with an answer by then he would no longer be a candidate. However, he was ready to join them and explain the details of his austerity program. A few minutes after midnight the smoke went up: 7 to 5 in favor of Bajnai. This time Mátyás Eörsi was absent. The five who voted against an agreement were Gabriella Béki, László Csőzik, József Gulyás, Péter Gusztos, and András Léderer. The last two are, it seems, part-time college students in their mid-twenties. Out of the nineteen parliamentary members seventeen were present and only four voted against Bajnai: Gabriella Béki, Péter Gusztos, József Gulyás, and Gábor Velkey. Three of these (Béki, Gusztos, Gulyás) are also members of the presidium. Out of these four, Gusztos said that he would abide by the majority's opinion, Béki and Velkey will think about their future attitudes, and Gulyás refused to budge. Today Gulyás explained why he won't support Bajnai: because MSZP will sabotage his program. Obviously Gulyás is blessed with supernatural powers; he can see into the future. The two absent members, Gábor Kuncze and Mátyás Eörsi, most likely would have voted with the majority.

And a few words about Bajnai. He is forty-one years old, seven years younger than Gyurcsány, and therefore he had no paid KISZ (Kommunista Ifjúsági Szövetség) position. In fact, at college (Karl Marx University) he was the first democratically elected president of the student body and as such organized a student boycott of the cafeteria where apparently the food was both bad and expensive. At the time of the change of regime he tried his hand at establishing a new democratic student movement, without much success. At one point he and István Stumpf, in charge of the prime minister's office between 1998 and 2002, organized a youth organization called MISZOT (Magyar Ifjúsági Szervezetek Országos Tanácsa), a kind of umbrella organization of the different youth groups. Because Bajnai spoke English and German well, he was the "foreign secretary" of the organization. In fact, his good relations with Stumpf didn't stop in later years: he gave a lecture series at the Századvég Politikai Iskola, a Fidesz creation.

After this brief sojourn into political life he settled for the business world after graduation in 1991. First he joined Creditum, a financial consulting company, where he stayed until 1993. In that year he received a scholarship to continue his "professional training" in London at the EBRD. In 1994, after returning from England, he joined Eurocorp International Finance Plc as a consultant. In 1995 he became a managing director and then vice CEO and Director of the Corporate Finance and Equity Capital Market Division of CA-IB Securities Plc. Between 2000 and 2005 he was CEO of Wallis Plc. In 2006 Prime Minister Gyurcsány, who knew him from his Creditum days, invited him to enter government service. First he was Government Commissioner for Development Policy, a year later he became Minister of Local Government and Regional Development in charge of the European Union subsidies. In 2008 he moved up and came to occupy perhaps the most important ministerial position: Minister for National Development and Economy.

Gyurcsány, Bajnai, and Kóka are old friends who came to know each other in the burgeoning Hungarian business world. Gyurcsány had previously called on Bajnai to join the government but he suggested János Kóka instead of himself. So, it's no wonder that Viktor Orbán already announced that even if Bajnai becomes prime minister the country will remain the captive of the same business circle as before. Such an accusation resonates well with the basically anti-business, anti-capitalist electorate. In addition, Tibor Navracsics announced that Fidesz doesn't consider a future Bajnai government legitimate because after all "nobody elected Gordon Bajnai" to be prime minister of Hungary. Of course, this is constitutional nonsense and an old Fidesz mantra. They said the same thing when MSZP named Ferenc Gyurcsány to be Péter Medgyessy's successor.

The "civil" organizations are planning a huge demonstration on Heroes' Square for April 5. Jobbik's EP candidate, the inimitable Krisztina Morvai, warned Bajnai that he will be shaking with fear if Jobbik moves into action against his so-called government. The couple of trade union leaders I heard today were not enthusiastic about the Bajnai package that wants to save about 600 billion forints this year. The few details sound pretty tough and even Bajnai predicted that the measures "will hurt." I wouldn't be at all surprised if the trade unions took their people to the streets soon enough. After all, they found the much milder Gyurcsány package unacceptable. It's a good thing that Bajnai apparently has no long-term political ambitions.

The day after: total confusion in Hungarian political life

Ferenc Gyurcsány's announcement that in two weeks he is going to initiate a constructive vote of no confidence was a bolt of lightning from a clear blue sky. No one expected it. Of course, there are "clever people" who claim that they had suspected something like it for quite a while, but the truth is that although there were rumors that people on the left within MSZP were unhappy with the prime minister there was nothing new in that. These people have been unhappy for the last five years or so. Yes, it is true that the popularity of the party was at an all-time low, but the opponents of Gyurcsány within the party weren't strong enough to dethrone him. No one thought that the prime minister himself would come up with such an ingenious solution: calling a constructive vote of no confidence against himself. The only case where such a solution was invoked was Willy Brandt's resignation in May 1974 when a close associate of the chancellor and SPD president, Günter Gauillaume, turned out to be an agent of the East German Stasi. At that time Brandt and Herbert Wehner, a key man in the socialist party, figured out a way to have a new head of government without new elections: to initiate a constructive vote of no confidence in favor of Helmut Schmidt, minister of finance in the SPD-FDP coalition government.

Fidesz was obviously caught by surprise. The top brass, after spending hours pondering the situation, came up with the same old plan: new elections. On Monday they will initiate a motion to discuss the dissolution of parliament. As we know, such attempts have been made several times and they all failed for the simple reason that the opposition parties can't agree on such a plan of action. I'm almost certain that they themselves know that their motion will fail again, but since they have no intention of sitting down and talking to MSZP, Gyurcsány or no Gyurcsány, they have to come up with a plan of their own. As for the other parties, SZDSZ is considered to be the most willing to come up with a "government of experts." If one can believe Gábor Fodor, the head of the party, they are not thinking in terms of a coalition; in my opinion this might change. This morning Károly Herényi was fairly negative when asked whether MDF would negotiate with MSZP and SZDSZ. Instead he kept emphasizing that they would support the politicians of Fidesz in their quest for early elections. However, by this afternoon MDF changed its mind. They are willing to negotiate. Everything can turn on a dime these days in Hungary.

This morning the "presidium" of MSZP (president, vice presidents, and head of the parliamentary caucus) held a meeting after which Gyurcsány gave a press conference. According to him, MSZP would like to see an "open, national government whose aim is to make decisisions that would help the recovery of the country's economy." What does "national government" mean? I don't think that it means a grand coalition because Fidesz would never take part in such a coalition. Moreover, the way Gyurcsány formulated the presidium's position, it was clear to me that  a "national government" for the MSZP presidium simply means a government with a "comfortable majority." He added that they would like to see "wide support"--presumably, a common platform of the three parties: MSZP, SZDSZ, and MDF. Of course, Gyurcsány spoke as if they were also counting on negotiations with Fidesz, but surely he knows as well as almost everybody in the country that such negotiations will not take place. Not even if Tibor Szanyi, the self-appointed leader of the left within MSZP, announced today that a grand coalition should be formed "without Gyurcsány and without Orbán." Orbán would have to promise that he wouldn't seek the position of prime minister for at least a year! I can already see how eagerly Orbán would accept Szanyi's more than naive proposal. Gyurcsány in his speech yesterday clearly had Szanyi and some of his friends in the party in mind when he warned against "left-wing populism" that is no better than its right-wing variety.

As for the time table, according to plans MSZP (and whoever joins them, I guess) would put forth the motion of constructive no confidence on April 6 and parliament could vote on the motion on April 14. Gyurcsány stated that the new government should have a more far-reaching economic program than the one he and his government originally contemplated. The current government will do everything necessary to prepare the foundation of such a program, but it will be the duty of the new prime minister to decide to what extent he wants to follow the recommendations. Gyurcsány will try to be helpful. He said that the new prime minister should decide the composition of his cabinet, which led me to believe that the cabinet might include people from the other parties. He was also optimistic that the parties (without Fidesz in my opinion) will be able to agree on a suitable person for the job.

So who might the next prime minister be? It is almost certain that it will not be one of the MSZP bigwigs or members of the current government. Therefore we can discard some names currently circulating: Gordon Bajnai, József Gráf, Péter Kiss. It will most likely be an outsider whose background is in economics and/or finance. Lajos Bokros is unlikely because MSZP would not support his nomination and I doubt that SZDSZ would either. After all, SZDSZ thought that Bokros was their man and now he is heading MDF's European Parliamentary list. László Békesi says such awful things both about MSZP and Ferenc Gyurcsány that I very much doubt that MSZP would pick him. I wouldn't either, because I find his utterances undiplomatic if not outright rude. Like a bull in the china shop. Then there is András Simor, the current head of the Hungarian National Bank. His decisions in the last few months have not exactly shown him to be a capable future leader of a country in the middle of an economic crisis. Moreover, I found his constant blabbing outright injurious to the country's interests. That leaves György Surányi, central bank president between 1990-91 and 1995-2001. He was a very good bank president and during one of the years in office he was chosen as bank president of the year in Europe. The problem with Surányi is that he hasn't said much until now about how he would try to solve the current economic problems. But perhaps that might be his strength! In any case, my feeling is that among the experts he would be the most acceptable to the three parties that might be called upon to decide on the person of the prime minister. Here is a "family portrait" of those whose names are circulating as possibilities:   

Meanwhile, I'm just hoping that those people, followers of Fidesz, who are bent on having early elections will not cause any disturbances. The trade unions promised a huge demonstration for April 4 and one can only hope that those who see this whole constructive motion of no confidence as no more than a trick to keep MSZP in power will not join in. Or perhaps the leaders of the trade unions will have enough sense to scrap their march under the circumstances. That's all the country would need. Meanwhile, one newspaper is sure that because of Gyurcsány's resignation the forint will be even weaker on Monday while others predict that the market will soar upon hearing the good news. Rumors are floating every which way and it is difficult to keep up with the flow of information. One can write this blog in the morning and by evening the situation is entirely different. If everything works out well, I am hopeful that the political situation will be better than it is now. If Gyurcsány can concentrate on party matters and the coming EP elections, perhaps the outcome will not be an MSZP rout. With a comfortable majority the work of parliament will be smoother and more predictable. And finally an "expert" prime minister three parties can support will be able to make bolder moves in economic matters.

Confusion and noise in SZDSZ

Within a week's time three SZDSZ politicians have spoken in three different voices. First there was Gábor Fodor, the head of the party, who in his response to Ferenc Gyurcsány's speech in parliament pretty well promised cooperation with the government. People who keep fingers crossed for some understanding between the two parties were relieved. Then came István Szent-Iványi, currently SZDSZ member of the European Parliament and the foreign policy expert of the party, who declared that "Gyurcsány is not the right person to lead the country out of the crisis." And he repeated Fidesz's favorite accusation that the prime minister is discredited. When pressed by Olga Kálmán today whom he would consider more suitable, Szent-Iványi couldn't come up with a name. When pressed again he came up with the shopworn idea of "a government of experts." I couldn't believe my ears.

But perhaps the most bizarre was an interview with János Kóka on György Bolgár's talk show this afternoon. János Kóka's answers are simple. (Apparently he learned the value of simple answers from Ronald Reagan!)  The answers are indeed very simple on paper: let 150-200 thousand public servants go, close about 50 universities, and reduce the number of hospitals by half. Simple, isn't it? It didn't matter how hard Bolgár pressed Kóka about the details, no creditable answer came from the man. Kóka kept repeating that if one wanted to know more about the details of SZDSZ's plan one ought to read his article in yesterday's Népszabadság. Well, I did.

I found even the title troubling: "The state itself is the problem." Well, that sounds familiar, doesn't it. As if János Kóka has been spending his days studying the life and political career of President Reagan! This is an interesting observation in the middle of a crisis that began in the United States at least in part because the state didn't pay enough attention to the financial world. Admittedly, his emphasis is not on regulation but on the size of government and its nefarious role in income redistribution. His plans, if you can call them plans, are simple enough. Everything ought to begin anew, says Kóka. One ought to forget about the past. Policy makers should start with a tabula rasa. First and foremost, Hungary should immediately introduce a flat tax. Calculations about how this would affect the budget or the deficit are not offered. The government should simply declare that from here on they would demand only 40% of people's income in the form of taxes and therefore it would have to reduce expenses. Drastically. Ten per cent. Less money for education, for healthcare, for social services, for pensions, for research, for agriculture, for the academy. But presumably more money in the pockets of citizens who, according to the mantra, spend more wisely and less wastefully than does government. I am not ruling out the possibility of a healthy debate about a flat tax sometime in the future. But now, when there's going to be a greater than normal need for a governmental safety net as the world markets implode, this debate on overhauling the tax structure seems singularly ill timed.

In the first few paragraphs Kóka outlined the sins of MSZP and Fidesz in promising heaven and earth before the elections. Very true. But when it comes to Péter Medgyessy's extravagant promises of a 50% raise in the wages of public employees, tax-free low income wages, and the thirteenth-month pension, Kóka was unwilling to take any of the blame. After all, SZDSZ was only the junior party in the coalition government. Another interesting observation from Kóka is that "the crisis didn't arrive in Hungary in the fall of 2008 but years before that." How many years before? After all, Kóka was minister of the economy between 2004 and 2007 and during that time he proclaimed that "the economy of Hungary is roaring." Another memorable pronouncement: "Hungary is the Pannon puma." Or: "Germany and France can be envious of Hungary." Kóka didn't seem to realize the depth of the crisis when he was in charge.

It is not at all becoming from the second man of SZDSZ to copy Fidesz's rather cheap attack on the government that "last fall we had to run, ahead of Pakistan and Ukraine, to the IMF." Moreover, it seems that Kóka thinks that the credit Hungary received from the IMF, World Bank, and EU Central Bank was the cause of the financial world's loss of trust in Hungary. And finally he comes up with a rather dubious historical comparison. The atmosphere of today is akin to that at the end of the 1980s. Everybody knew then that things couldn't go on in the same old way, but people were convinced that the Soviet Union would live on for at least another twenty years. "There was a small minority that was capable of moving the masses." Soon enough came the change of regime. Of course, the members of this small minority were those who later established SZDSZ. Kóka is convinced that "the minority is here again." "Perhaps their numbers haven't yet reached a critical mass, but their numbers grow day by day." Oh, how optimistic. The truth is that SZDSZ has a shrinking base.

A lot of people felt compelled to write comments on Kóka's article. The one I liked best was "The appropriate title would read: 'Kóka himself is the problem.' "

Gábor Fodor's latest

The other day I heard on the radio that Gábor Fodor, chairman of SZDSZ, the Hungarian liberal party, sent open letters to Ferenc Gyurcsány, head of MSZP, and Viktor Orbán, president of Fidesz. From the prime minister Fodor asked for "more deeds and fewer promises"; he asked the head of Fidesz to give up the idea of early elections. He sought a truce and an end to the constant conflict leading nowhere. Under the circumstances what Hungary needs is "an effective government and a responsible opposition." Fodor asked the two to bury the hatchet. Instead of dissecting their past grievances, they should put their energy into solving the problems facing the country.

Well, I couldn't help laughing out loud. Fodor asking Gyurcsány and Orbán to cooperate? There is no way Orbán would be willing to exchange a word with Ferenc Gyurcsány. Of course, the prime minister would be most willing to have a dialogue because under the circumstances the government needs all the help it can get. And with an opposition that says no to everything it is very difficult to run the country.

The question is whether Fodor is hopelessly naive or whether he had another agenda in mind. One "political scientist" thought that Fodor wrote these letters because, being the head of a small party, he cannot get into the news otherwise. That doesn't sound too plausible to me. Perhaps he thinks that the ever decreasing numbers of his followers would find such an attempt attractive. Or, more grandiosely, he may see himself as the perfect bridge builder given his former prominent role in Fidesz and his former membership in the Gyurcsány cabinet. If this was his intent, it was misguided. These Fodor moves only arouse suspicion on both sides. MSZP supporters suspect him of being somehow in league with Orbán while Fidesz supporters are convinced that Fodor has ulterior motives when he tries to court his old roommate, Viktor Orbán.

Four days have gone by. Gyurcsány hasn't answered Fodor yet, but Orbán wrote "a very polite letter" in which he agreed that in today's Hungary there is need for collaboration, but Fidesz "wants to cooperate with the people against faulty governmental policies." He reminded Fodor that his party (SZDSZ) prevented unified action against the government that would have opened the door for early elections. However, he continued, he has not given up hope that "all political forces will realize that the interest of the country is more important than that of any party. In this endeavor we count on the assistance of SZDSZ and you personally."

The reaction to this exchange is interesting. On the left, Tamás Mészáros in Népszava (February 6) wrote a lengthy opinion piece called "Levelét megírta." The title is a paraphrase of the first lines of a famous János Arany poem entitled "Mátyás anyja" (Mother of Mathias): "Szilányi Örzsébet / Levelét megirta; / Szerelmes / Könnyével /Azt is telesirta." The romantic tone of the poem is in stark contrast to the intent of Orbán's letter and therefore amusing. Mészáros is no friend of Fodor although a few days ago he praised the SZDSZ chairman for his speech in parliament, calling it perhaps Fodor's best speech ever. Mészáros isn't quite sure why Fodor decided to write a letter to Orbán, but he's inclined to think that Fodor simply wanted Orbán to reiterate his fierce opposition to the government and his demand for early elections. He certainly got that. In addition Orbán repeats his accusation that the government is responsible for the economic crisis and that it is aggravated by the world's distrust of Gyurcsány and his policies. Mészáros is convinced that Orbán wrote this letter not so much to Gábor Fodor but to his own followers. He wanted to assure them that there is not now and never will be any dialogue between him and the government. There will be no constructive opposition, regardless of any overtures he receives from the other side. Mészáros thinks that Fodor and his friends should learn once and for all that if SZDSZ really wants to have a positive role in handling the crisis it is useless to keep repeating their fierce opposition to the government. Surely, they ought to be able to understand that there is no possibility of cooperation with Fidesz unless they are ready to assist them in removing the current government and holding early elections. If they are unwilling to do that, as they are, then, says Mészáros, they should support the government openly.

Well, if Orbán wrote this letter not so much to Fodor but to his followers he may not have been too successful. It is enough to read an opinion piece in Magyar Hírlap by Ferenc Sinkovics (February 6) "Nyúl a bokorból," a Hungarian expression that can very loosely be rendered in English as "Smoking them out." If we can believe Sinkovics, many people on the right "surely think that Viktor Orbán lost his mind" when he wrote a letter to Gabor Fodor, head of SZDSZ. "This letter is written to the heart and conscience of Fodor and SZDSZ but it is well known that SZDSZ is an organization without heart and conscience." A good beginning, don't you think? Not only did he write to this unfeeling, amoral bunch,  but Orbán "brings up, even if indirectly, a possible political alliance. And he does this despite the fact that there is no group, voter, political friend or foe that party didn't deceive." Getting better and better! But he continues: "It is indeed painful to read this letter, to read the sentence 'we count on SZDSZ.'" However, Sinkovics says, Orbán is a good tactician and right now he needs SZDSZ because without this party there can be no early elections that are so urgently needed. After all, the number of unemployed is growing, "600,000 people are unable to pay their debts" (where he gets his numbers, don't ask). Something has to be done. There is no time to waste. SZDSZ is only "half a step from the trap-door, perhaps not even that much." Perhaps they realize that they have no future and perhaps this letter will make them say yes. After all, József Gulyás, a close friend of Fodor in the party, said that "SZDSZ may get fed up" with the government's inaction. Perhaps this letter will "smoke them out."

I have the feeling that Fodor will not listen to Mészáros. It is also unlikely that Orbán's strategy to get SZDSZ on board will work. SZDSZ has been adamant that it will not be the partner of Fidesz in bringing elections forward to 2009.